Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Moritz Guenther, Hauke Schmidt, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey
Summary: Research has shown that volcanic aerosol forcing leads to global cooling, but its efficacy is lower and feedback weakens over time. The impact is particularly significant in the tropical Indo-Pacific warm-pool region, playing a crucial role in restoring global temperature equilibrium.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Harpreet Kaur, Govindasamy Bala, Ashwin K. Seshadri
Summary: Previous studies have found that climate sensitivity is smaller for solar radiative forcing compared to an equivalent CO2 radiative forcing. This study investigates the causes for this difference using the NCAR CAM4 model and estimates the contributions of different feedbacks. The results suggest that the difference in feedback between the two cases is mainly due to differences in lapse rate, water vapor, and cloud feedbacks.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Gunnar Myhre, Bjorn Samset, Piers M. Forster, Oivind Hodnebrog, Marit Sandstad, Christian W. Mohr, Jana Sillmann, Camilla W. Stjern, Timothy Andrews, Olivier Boucher, Gregory Faluvegi, Trond Iversen, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Matthew Kasoar, Alf Kirkevag, Ryan Kramer, Longbo Liu, Johannes Muelmenstaedt, Dirk Olivie, Johannes Quaas, Thomas B. Richardson, Dilshad Shawki, Drew Shindell, Chris Smith, Philip Stier, Tao Tang, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris
Summary: This article reports the main scientific values and results from General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project. The simulations of these models enhance our understanding of the impact of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and incoming solar radiation on the Earth's radiation balance and climate response, particularly in terms of temperature and precipitation changes. The article also provides instructions on how to extract files from the dataset.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jia-Rui Shi, Young-Oh Kwon, Susan E. Wijffels
Summary: This study utilizes a pattern recognition method to isolate the forced patterns of anthropogenic aerosols on surface ocean and atmospheric variables. The results show that aerosol-forced responses are dominated by two modes, one associated with the historical change in global mean aerosol concentrations and the other with the transition of aerosol sources.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Bosong Zhang, Ming Zhao, Haozhe He, Brian J. Soden, Zhihong Tan, Baoqiang Xiang, Chenggong Wang
Summary: This study investigates the relationship between climate sensitivity and the spatial pattern of radiative forcing. The results show that the climate is nearly twice as sensitive to Southern Ocean forcing compared to tropical forcing. These findings have important implications for understanding the impact of different forcings on climate.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Wei-Ting Hsiao, Yen-Ting Hwang, Yong-Jhih Chen, Sarah M. Kang
Summary: This study investigates the critical role of clouds in shaping the tropical SST response to extratropical thermal forcing using a cloud-locking technique. It is found that heating imposed over the extratropical Northern Atlantic or Pacific leads to a strengthening of the Hadley Cells and trades south of the rainband. The wind-evaporation-SST feedback results in cooling over the southern subtropics, with enhanced cooling in the southeastern Pacific due to positive feedback between SST and stratiform clouds. Cloud-locking experiments reveal that zonal contrasts in SST and cloud feedbacks in the Pacific enhance zonal surface winds, leading to increased evaporation and strengthening of zonal SST difference. The study proposes that the meridional and zonal SST gradients are tightly linked via WES effects and cloud-radiative-SST feedbacks, which are determined by the climatological rainband position and the spatial distribution of cloud properties.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Casey J. Wall, Joel R. Norris, Anna Possner, Daniel T. Mccoy, Isabel L. Mccoy, Nicholas J. Lutsko
Summary: This study quantifies the relationship between anthropogenic sulfate aerosols and low-level clouds using satellite observations, and estimates the range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) by constraining the associated radiative forcing. The results indicate that the uncertainty in aerosol forcing is smaller and ECS may be larger than previously assessed.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jia-Rui Shi, Young-Oh Kwon, Susan E. Wijffels
Summary: Separating the climate response to external forcing from internal climate variability is a challenge. This study focuses on North Pacific subsurface temperature responses driven by anthropogenic aerosol emissions. The findings show a nonmonotonic temporal response and a characteristic zonal-mean pattern associated with the aerosol forcing.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
T. Amdur, A. R. Stine, P. Huybers
Summary: The sensitivity of global surface temperature to solar variability is contentious, with various estimates ranging from 0.02 to 0.18 K (W m(-2))(-1). The study suggests a best estimate sensitivity of 0.05 K (W m(-2))(-1) based on lagged multiple linear regression. Revised estimates indicate a relatively modest role for solar cycle variability in driving global surface temperature variations.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jason Chalmers, Jennifer E. Kay, Eleanor A. Middlemas, Elizabeth A. Maroon, Pedro DiNezio
Summary: The processes controlling idealized warming and cooling patterns were examined in experiments using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1) under abrupt CO2 forcing. The results showed that 2 X CO2 global warming was 20% larger than 0.5 X CO2 global cooling, with higher absolute global effective radiative forcing and less negative global feedbacks for 2 X CO2. The findings provide new insights into the regional processes controlling the response to greenhouse gas forcing, especially for clouds.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
V. K. Patel, J. Kuttippurath
Summary: This study focuses on the spatial and temporal changes in water vapor over India and the Indian Ocean, and analyzes its impact on regional climate through radiative effects. The results show an increasing trend in water vapor content in the region, which could affect the temperature and climate.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jiapeng Miao, Dabang Jiang
Summary: The study found that internal variability, particularly the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, plays a dominant role in multidecadal variations in East Asian surface air temperature since 1880. External forcings also have an impact on temperature changes, but mainly due to offsetting effects between different forcing agents.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Masaki Toda, Masahiro Watanabe, Masakazu Yoshimori
Summary: Modeling studies have shown that land warms more than ocean in response to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Despite multiple proposed mechanisms, a comprehensive understanding of this land-ocean warming contrast has not been achieved.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Xiuhua Zhu
Summary: Model parameter sensitivity and forcing conditions should be evaluated as a compound, failure to account for this relation leads to a systematic underestimation of uncertainty in forced responses of climate models. Model resolution sensitivity depends on the forcing conditions applied and changes as the forcing deviates further from a reference state.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Noh-Hun Seong, Hyun-Cheol Kim, Sungwon Choi, Donghyun Jin, Daeseong Jung, Suyoung Sim, Jongho Woo, Nayeon Kim, Minji Seo, Kyeong-Sang Lee, Kyung-Soo Han
Summary: The rapid warming of the Arctic has led to widespread loss of sea ice. This study found that both surface albedo and skin temperature have significant effects on sea ice radiative forcing (SIRF). The results show that temperature-SIRF is changing more rapidly than albedo-SIRF in the Arctic, indicating that skin temperatures may have a greater impact on sea ice surface changes than albedo.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Emily Floess, Andrew Grieshop, Elisa Puzzolo, Dan Pope, Nicholas Leach, Christopher J. Smith, Annelise Gill-Wiehl, Katherine Landesman, Rob Bailis
Summary: Nearly three billion people in LMICs rely on polluting fuels, causing millions of avoidable deaths each year. Transitioning to LPG and/or electricity can significantly reduce emissions and improve climate impacts. Full transitions to LPG or grid electricity in LMICs can also substantially lower health risks from household air pollution.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Gaurav Ganti, Matthew J. Gidden, Christopher J. Smith, Claire Fyson, Alexander Nauels, Keywan Riahi, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Summary: Addressing equitable contributions to emission reductions is crucial for ambitious global action on climate change within the framework of the Paris Agreement. Developing regions with low historical contributions to global warming have a moral claim to a significant portion of the remaining carbon budget. However, this claim must be assessed in the context of diminishing carbon budget consistent with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Christopher J. Smith, Angshuman Modak, Maria Rugenstein
Summary: We provide new estimates of effective radiative forcing (ERF) for models participating in CMIP6 by using a method developed in Fredriksen et al. (2021) and validating it with available fixed-SST forcing estimates. Our results show that CMIP6 ERF is lower than CMIP5 ERF at the end of the historical period but grows faster in the future scenarios, reaching higher levels than CMIP5 by the end of the 21st century. The relatively larger future increase in CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5 is an important factor in explaining the forcing difference.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Oceanography
S. Horii, K. Takahashi, T. Shiozaki, S. Takeda, M. Sato, T. Yamaguchi, S. Takino, F. Hashihama, Y. Kondo, T. Takemura, K. Furuya
Summary: In the subtropical North Pacific, the availability of both iron and phosphorus control the distribution of N-2 fixation. Dust input correlates with N-2 fixation in the western area, while vertically diffused iron is also important in the eastern area. In the phosphate-depleted western area, N-2 fixation is limited by phosphorus availability. Both iron and phosphorus dynamics need to be considered to predict the response of N-2 fixation.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Paloma Trascasa-Castro, Amanda C. Maycock, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Marco Turco, Paul W. Staten
Summary: Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) plays a role in modulating the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. Using idealized simulations with the NCAR-CESM1 model, the effect of warm (AMV+) and cold (AMV-) AMV conditions on the ENSO teleconnection to Australia during austral summer is explored. AMV+ strengthens the precipitation and temperature responses to El Nino in south-western Australia, while weakening them in north-eastern Australia. The modulation of La Nina impacts by AMV is asymmetric, with a weakening of precipitation and temperature responses in eastern Australia. The altered surface climate response to ENSO in Australia by AMV is attributed to variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation. The potential for AMV to drive multidecadal variability in ENSO impacts over Australia is suggested. Rating: 7/10.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Pengfei Yu, Robert W. Portmann, Yifeng Peng, Cheng-Cheng Liu, Yunqian Zhu, Elizabeth Asher, Zhixuan Bai, Ye Lu, Jianchun Bian, Michael Mills, Anja Schmidt, Karen H. Rosenlof, Owen B. Toon
Summary: Volcanic and wildfire events between 2014 and 2022 injected 3.2 Tg of sulfur dioxide and 0.8 Tg of smoke aerosols into the stratosphere. The simulated stratospheric lifetime of the injections during this period is 50% longer than previous volcanic injections. These injections resulted in a global mean effective radiative forcing of -0.18 W m(-2), which is 40% of the radiative forcing caused by the Pinatubo eruption. The smoke aerosols from wildfires have a greater negative radiative forcing compared to volcanic sulfate.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Christopher D. Wells, Lawrence S. Jackson, Amanda C. Maycock, Piers M. Forster
Summary: The regional climate impacts of future emissions scenarios can be estimated by combining Earth system model simulations with a linear pattern scaling model. The study used MESMER to emulate the regional pattern of the surface temperature response based on historical single-forcer and future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway simulations. The results highlight the limitations of linear pattern scaling for strong mitigation pathways and provide guidance for selecting predictor scenarios and introducing other dependent variables in pattern scaling models.
EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Bjorn H. Samset, Massimo A. Bollasina, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Marianne T. Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O'Donnell, David J. Paynter, Geeta G. Persad, Steven T. Rumbold, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sabine Undorf, Daniel M. Westervelt
Summary: Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have had a strong impact on global and regional temperature, precipitation, and climate characteristics, particularly on Asian and African precipitation decadal trends. The uncertainties in emission pathways, radiative forcing, and dynamic response make anthropogenic aerosol a key factor in near-future climate projections, especially on regional scales. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) aims to quantify the role of regional aerosol emissions changes in near-term projections and provide insights for climate policies.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Leighton A. Regayre, Lucia Deaconu, Daniel P. Grosvenor, David M. H. Sexton, Christopher Symonds, Tom Langton, Duncan Watson-Paris, Jane P. Mulcahy, Kirsty J. Pringle, Mark Richardson, Jill S. Johnson, John W. Rostron, Hamish Gordon, Grenville Lister, Philip Stier, Ken S. Carslaw
Summary: Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing affects climate sensitivity estimates and model skill in climate projections. Efforts to improve physical process representation in climate models have not constrained possible aerosol forcing values. A better constraint can be achieved using global mean energy balance arguments based on observed temperature changes.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurelien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jose M. Gutierrez, Johannes Guetschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Panmao Zhai
Summary: IPCC assessments are a trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations, but the time gap between report cycles creates an information gap. To fill this gap, we compile monitoring datasets based on IPCC report methods to provide annually updated reliable global climate indicators.
EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE DATA
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Marianne Tronstad Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Bjorn Hallvard Samset, Zbigniew Klimont
Summary: This study compares the effects of recent global emission inventories on simulated trends in anthropogenic aerosol abundances and radiative forcing. The results show that using the ECLIPSE version 6 and CEDS year 2021 release leads to lower global mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) compared to the first CEDS release, with larger differences in China and India. The study also finds a negative linear trend in global AOD over 2005-2017, which is stronger with CEDS21 and ECLv6.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, Matthew Kasoar, Rossella Arcucci
Summary: This study proposes a JULES-INFERNO-based digital twin fire model using ROM techniques and deep learning prediction networks to improve the efficiency of global wildfire predictions. The proposed model can effectively encode the original data and achieve accurate surrogate predictions. Furthermore, the application of latent data assimilation can also effectively adjust the bias of the prediction results. The proposed digital twin also runs 500 times faster for online predictions than the original JULES-INFERNO model without requiring high-performance computing (HPC) clusters.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Ross Herbert, Philip Stier
Summary: This study investigates the smoke-cloud-radiation interactions in the Amazon rainforest using satellite sensors. The results show that smoke significantly modifies the Amazonian atmosphere and has different effects on convective activity, cloudiness, and precipitation depending on the smoke concentration. Further research is needed to understand the impact of smoke on the Amazon climate.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sean M. Davis, Nicholas Davis, Robert W. Portmann, Eric Ray, Karen Rosenlof
Summary: This paper investigates the relationship between tropical lower-stratospheric upwelling and lower-stratospheric ozone by analyzing the discrepancy between WACCM-SD simulations and observations. The study finds that the standard configuration of WACCM-SD fails to reproduce the tropical upwelling changes, leading to a spurious negative upwelling trend and an apparent discrepancy in ozone trends. However, a free-running version of WACCM using only surface boundary conditions produces results that are in closer agreement with ozone observations.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Xiaochao Yu, Hua Zhang, Bing Xie, Piers M. Forster
Summary: Our study examines the effect of emission reductions on precipitation and finds that reducing aerosol emissions increases precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions decreases precipitation in the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous emissions reductions lead to an enhanced precipitation contrast between hemispheres, and more aggressive greenhouse gas mitigation policies are necessary to counteract aerosol-induced warming. This study is important for understanding climate change and informing adaptation policies.