4.5 Article

An Investigation of Parameter Sensitivity of Minimum Complexity Earth Simulator

Journal

ATMOSPHERE
Volume 11, Issue 1, Pages -

Publisher

MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/atmos11010095

Keywords

parameter sensitivity; MiCES model; global warming; ocean heat capacity

Funding

  1. National Key Research and Development Program of China [2017YFA0605303]
  2. National Natural Science Foundation of China [41877454]
  3. Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [XDA23100401]
  4. Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS [2019053]

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Climate change, induced by human greenhouse gas emission, has already influenced the environment and society. To quantify the impact of human activity on climate change, scientists have developed numerical climate models to simulate the evolution of the climate system, which often contains many parameters. The choice of parameters is of great importance to the reliability of the simulation. Therefore, parameter sensitivity analysis is needed to optimize the parameters for the model so that the physical process of nature can be reasonably simulated. In this study, we analyzed the parameter sensitivity of a simple carbon-cycle energy balance climate model, called the Minimum Complexity Earth Simulator (MiCES), in different periods using a multi-parameter sensitivity analysis method and output measurement method. The results show that the seven parameters related to heat and carbon transferred are most sensitive among all 37 parameters. Then uncertainties of the above key parameters are further analyzed by changing the input emission and temperature, providing reference bounds of parameters with 95% confidence intervals. Furthermore, we found that ocean heat capacity will be more sensitive if the simulation time becomes longer, indicating that ocean influence on climate is stronger in the future.

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