Agent-based modeling and simulation of stochastic heat pump usage behavior in residential communities

A simulation method of stochastic heating behaviors in residential communities is developed, which is helpful to accurately predict regional dynamic electricity loads. In this method, the corresponding relationship among the structure of family members, the ownership and the locations of heat pumps should be established for each family firstly. The residents need be divided to several types based on the age, and the occupancy profile and the rules for heating behavior by each type of residents should be set up, as well as their interactive features. A simulation model of stochastic heating behavior in residential communities is established by agent-based modeling. A case study to simulate the stochastic heating behavior in a residential community was made. The result indicates this method is applicable to simulate stochastic heating behavior in residential communities with good accuracy.