Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yohei Sawada
Summary: A new method called HOOPE-PF is introduced to estimate time-varying parameters in relatively low dimensional models. It outperforms the original SIRPF in synthetic and real-data experiments, and is not greatly affected by the size of perturbations added to ensemble members.
JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
(2022)
Article
Ecology
Hannah L. Clipp, Amber L. Evans, Brin E. Kessinger, Kenneth Kellner, Christopher T. Rota
Summary: This paper introduces a penalized likelihood approach to address parameter estimation issues in multispecies occupancy models, showing that it results in lower bias and mean squared error compared to unpenalized models. The technique has been integrated into the unmarked package in R for easy use.
Article
Fisheries
Jia Wo, Chongliang Zhang, Yupeng Ji, Binduo Xu, Ying Xue, Yiping Ren
Summary: The management of mixed fisheries is complicated due to the interactions among fish species, but using a multispecies total allowable catch approach can help sustain the fisheries in the long term. The study found that this approach has the potential to maintain long-term yields and community structure while considering the interactions and changes within fish community. It can be a promising method for achieving sustainability in data-deficient fisheries.
ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Ecology
Shujuan Xia, Takashi Yamakawa, Chongliang Zhang, Yiping Ren
Summary: The study developed a new discrete multi-species model to describe seasonal dynamics of marine communities. The model revealed an evaluation framework for the consequences of capital and income breeding strategies at the population level.
ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
(2021)
Article
Management
Tomasz Dubiel-Teleszynski, Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos, Nikolaos Karouzakis
Summary: This study examines the statistical and economic importance of restrictions on the dynamics of risk compensation in predicting bond excess returns using dynamic term structure models. By imposing restrictions on risk premia parameters, the study finds evidence of out-of-sample predictability for models that allow for level risk to be priced and a few risk premia parameters to be non-zero. The findings demonstrate economically significant utility gains across different prediction horizons, time periods, and portfolio specifications. The study also presents a methodological framework for real-time model search and parameter estimation to inform investors' asset allocation decisions.
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Food Science & Technology
Jesus Miguel Zamudio Lara, Laurent Dewasme, Hector Hernandez Escoto, Alain Vande Wouwer
Summary: Two dynamic models of beer fermentation are proposed in this study, and their parameters are estimated using experimental data. The structural identifiability of the measurement configuration and kinetic model structure is analyzed, and the predictive capability of the model is investigated. The model can be used for monitoring and controlling the beer fermentation process.
Article
Water Resources
Hongli Liu, Bryan A. Tolson, Andrew J. Newman, Andrew W. Wood
Summary: This study examines the potential of using a forcing ensemble to identify robust parameters through model calibration, comparing ensemble forcing-based calibration with deterministic forcing-based calibration. Results show that ensemble calibration generates less biased parameter estimates and improves the overall reliability and simulation skill of ensemble simulation results by reducing the risk of inaccurate flow simulation caused by poor-quality meteorological inputs.
HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Environmental
Xiao Zhou, Shuyi Guo, Kunlun Xin, Weirong Xu, Tao Tao, Hexiang Yan
Summary: The upgrading of water supply services requires accurate and adaptive numerical models, and data assimilation methods can enhance the long-term accuracy and stability of the models by reducing uncertainties.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Sergio Naranjo, Francelino A. Rodrigues Jr, Georg Cadisch, Santiago Lopez-Ridaura, Mariela Fuentes Ponce, Carsten Marohn
Summary: This study combines plot-scale soil erosion measurements, UAV-derived high-resolution DTMs, and spatially explicit soil erosion modeling to select an appropriate spatial resolution, indicating that a resolution of 4 meters is sufficient to describe the variability of soil erosion at the study site.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Dominique Joubert, J. D. Stigter, Jaap Molenaar
Summary: Structural identifiability is crucial in model development, and problematic initial values may lead to unidentifiability, which can be resolved by changing these values.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Cecile Coulon, Alexandre Pryet, Jean-Michel Lemieux, Ble Jean Fidele Yrro, Abderrezak Bouchedda, Erwan Gloaguen, Jean-Christophe Comte, J. Christian Dupuis, Olivier Banton
Summary: Sharp-interface seawater intrusion models have practical applications in regional decision-support groundwater modeling, but the implementation of parameter estimation and uncertainty analyses is limited, with few guidelines available.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Marine
Jake P. Grainger, Adam M. Sykulski, Philip Jonathan, Kevin Ewans
Summary: Wind-generated waves are often treated as stochastic processes, with interest in their spectral density functions for modelling structural response. Current techniques struggle with recovering certain parameters, but a statistical approach known as de-biased Whittle likelihood has been shown to outperform them in terms of accuracy and precision. Through numerical simulations and practical application on real data, this method shows promise in improving parameter estimation of spectral functions.
Article
Acoustics
Chao Fu, Weidong Zhu, Yongfeng Yang, Shibo Zhao, Kuan Lu
Summary: This research develops a non-intrusive Chebyshev surrogate coupled with the harmonic balance method to calculate harmonics and super-harmonic responses of an uncertain notched rotor. The accuracy of the surrogate function is validated using a scanning approach and the impact of Chebyshev parameters on performance is studied. An improved surrogate function is formulated to efficiently and accurately estimate the uncertain responses of notched rotors with multi-interval variables.
JOURNAL OF SOUND AND VIBRATION
(2022)
Article
Automation & Control Systems
Deepak Maurya, Arun K. Tangirala, Shankar Narasimhan
Summary: This article proposes a novel identification algorithm for the errors-in-variables autoregressive model with exogenous input (EIV-ARX) in the presence of colored noise. The algorithm jointly estimates the error variances, process order, delay, and model parameters by transforming the lagged measurements using the appropriate error covariance matrix.
JOURNAL OF THE FRANKLIN INSTITUTE-ENGINEERING AND APPLIED MATHEMATICS
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Environmental
Zengkai Liu, Qiang Ma, Xuewei Shi, Qi Chen, Zhonghao Han, Baoping Cai, Yonghong Liu
Summary: This paper presents a novel dynamic quantitative risk assessment method for drilling well control by integrating multiple types of risk factors. The method is demonstrated through a case study of a well section. The research finds that environmental factors have the highest influence on overall drilling well control risk, and performs an uncertainty analysis on parameters of different rock formations.
PROCESS SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
(2022)
Article
Statistics & Probability
Christopher A. Pope, John Paul Gosling, Stuart Barber, Jill S. Johnson, Takanobu Yamaguchi, Graham Feingold, Paul G. Blackwell
Summary: This article introduces a method for modeling functions with heterogeneity or discontinuity, utilizing Voronoi tessellation and Gaussian processes; the method is highly flexible in handling region combinations, allowing for consideration of nonconvex and disconnected regions; an adaptive sampling method is proposed to obtain additional information along borders.
Review
Ecology
Tyler D. Eddy, Joey R. Bernhardt, Julia L. Blanchard, William W. L. Cheung, Mathieu Colleter, Hubert du Pontavice, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Didier Gascuel, Kelly A. Kearney, Colleen M. Petrik, Tilla Roy, Ryan R. Rykaczewski, Rebecca Selden, Charles A. Stock, Colette C. C. Wabnitz, Reg A. Watson
Summary: Transfer efficiency, the proportion of energy passed between nodes in food webs, is an emergent and unitless property that is challenging to measure. It responds dynamically to environmental and ecosystem changes, with slight variations potentially having large effects on food availability for top predators. Both process-level analysis and observed macro-scale variations suggest that ecosystem-scale transfer efficiency is highly variable and will decline with climate change, emphasizing the importance of fully understanding the processes controlling transfer efficiency.
TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION
(2021)
Article
Ecology
Jordan E. Milner, Paul G. Blackwell, Mu Niu
Summary: The study focuses on developing an animal group movement model based on the concept of social hierarchies to capture information on animal interactions. By incorporating a multivariate diffusion process in the model, dynamic social behaviors are simulated and parameter estimation is carried out. Results demonstrate successful modeling of social behaviors within animal groups in continuous time.
METHODS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
(2021)
Article
Biology
Mu Niu, Fay Frost, Jordan E. Milner, Anna Skarin, Paul G. Blackwell
Summary: This article presents a new method for modeling collective movement in continuous time, taking into account behavioral switching. The method successfully recovers the true behavioral states in simulated data sets and can be applied to real data sets of animal tracking.
Article
Ecology
Freddie J. Heather, Julia L. Blanchard, Graham J. Edgar, Rowan Trebilco, Rick D. Stuart-Smith
Summary: The inclusion of invertebrates in the study of size spectra in rocky and coral reef communities worldwide leads to a steeper and more consistent size spectrum slope across latitudes, bringing the slopes closer to theoretical expectations based on energy flow through the system. This highlights the importance of understanding the contributions of both invertebrates and fishes to reef food webs on a global scale.
Article
Ecology
Stacey A. McCormack, Jessica Melbourne-Thomas, Rowan Trebilco, Julia L. Blanchard, Ben Raymond, Andrew Constable
Summary: This study provides a quantitative assessment of regional differentiation in Southern Ocean food webs and the relative importance of alternative energy pathways between different regions. Antarctic krill are dominant in the Atlantic and East Pacific food webs, while mesopelagic fish and other krill species play a greater role in the Indian and West Pacific regions. Tracking data and habitat modeling for top predators also show how these species integrate food webs over large regional scales in the Southern Ocean.
ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
(2021)
Article
Fisheries
Richard S. Cottrell, Marc Metian, Halley E. Froehlich, Julia L. Blanchard, Nis Sand Jacobsen, Peter B. McIntyre, Kirsty L. Nash, David R. Williams, Lex Bouwman, Jessica A. Gephart, Caitlin D. Kuempel, Daniel D. Moran, Max Troell, Benjamin S. Halpern
Summary: Aquaculture policy should avoid simplistic sustainability indicators like trophic level and instead focus on empirically derived metrics based on specific farmed properties, management techniques, and advances in feed formulation. The divergence and convergence of farmed species at effective trophic levels pose challenges for understanding trophic level in aquaculture and its sustainability implications.
REVIEWS IN AQUACULTURE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Svetlana V. Tishkovskaya, Paul G. Blackwell
Summary: This article describes a flexible class of stochastic models that capture key features of animal movement patterns, while extending the inference process to cases where boundaries of habitat regions are unknown. The Bayesian approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods allows estimation of both diffusion process parameters and unknown boundaries.
Article
Fisheries
Michael A. Spence, Robert B. Thorpe, Paul G. Blackwell, Finlay Scott, Richard Southwell, Julia L. Blanchard
Summary: Traditional marine management often uses single-species models to manage fish stocks, which are good at assessing the current state and making short-term predictions, but lack predictive power on longer timescales. Size-based multi-species models, which consider interactions between species such as predation and competition for resources, can improve credibility and utility for management by providing quantifiable uncertainty and transparent underlying assumptions.
FISH AND FISHERIES
(2021)
Correction
Ecology
Ryan F. Heneghan, Jason D. Everett, Patrick Sykes, Sonia D. Batten, Martin Edwards, Kunio Takahashi, Iain M. Suthers, Julia L. Blanchard, Sonia L. Blanchard, Anthony J. Richardson
ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
(2023)
Review
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Caitlin D. Kuempel, Melanie Frazier, Kirsty L. Nash, Nis Sand Jacobsen, David R. Williams, Julia L. Blanchard, Richard S. Cottrell, Peter B. McIntyre, Daniel Moran, Lex Bouwman, Halley E. Froehlich, Jessica A. Gephart, Marc Metian, Johannes Toebben, Benjamin S. Halpern
Article
Food Science & Technology
Richard S. Cottrell, Julia L. Blanchard, Benjamin S. Halpern, Marc Metian, Halley E. Froehlich
Article
Environmental Sciences
Heidi R. Pethybridge, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Alistair J. Hobday, Julia Blanchard, Catherine M. Bulman, Ian R. Butler, William W. L. Cheung, Leo X. C. Dutra, Rebecca Gorton, Trevor Hutton, Richard Matear, Hector Lozano-Montes, Eva E. Plaganyi, Cecilia Villanueva, Xuebin Zhang
FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE
(2020)
Article
Ecology
Ryan F. Heneghan, Jason D. Everett, Patrick Sykes, Sonia D. Batten, Martin Edwards, Kunio Takahashi, Iain M. Suthers, Julia L. Blanchard, Anthony J. Richardson
ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
(2020)