Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 47, Issue 3, Pages -Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL086224
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Funding
- French government through the UCAJEDI Investments in the Future project [ANR-15-IDEX-01]
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Earthquake foreshocks may provide information that is critical to short-term earthquake forecasting. However, foreshocks are far from ubiquitously observed, which makes the interpretation of ongoing seismic sequences problematic. Based on a statistical analysis, Trugman and Ross (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083725) suggested that as much as 72% of all mainshocks in Southern California is preceded by foreshock sequences. In this study, we reassess the analysis of Trugman and Ross (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083725), and we evaluate the impact of the assumptions made by these authors. Using an alternative statistical approach, we find that only 15 out of 46 mainshocks (33%) are preceded by significantly elevated seismicity rates. When accounting for temporal fluctuations in the background seismicity, only 18% of the analyzed foreshock sequences remain unexplained by the background seismicity. These results imply that even in a highly complete earthquake catalog, the majority of earthquakes do not exhibit detectable foreshock sequences.
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