Journal
DIABETES OBESITY & METABOLISM
Volume 22, Issue 5, Pages 798-806Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/dom.13958
Keywords
cardiovascular disease; diabetes complications; exenatide; glucagon-like peptide-1 analogue; type 2 diabetes
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Funding
- AstraZeneca
- European Union Horizon 2020
- Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research [917.15.306]
- Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research
- European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations
- Horizon 2020
- European Union
- Innovative Medicines Initiative, BEAt-DKD programme [115974]
- Amylin Pharmaceuticals
- University of Oxford
- Duke Clinical Research Institute
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Aim To assess whether the previously developed multivariable risk prediction framework (PRE score) could predict the renal effects observed in the EXSCEL cardiovascular outcomes trial using short-term changes in cardio-renal risk markers. Materials and Methods Changes from baseline to 6 months in HbA1c, systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), haemoglobin, total cholesterol, and new micro- or macroalbuminuria were evaluated. The renal outcomes were defined as a composite of a sustained 30% or 40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Relationships between risk markers and long-term renal outcomes were determined in patients with type 2 diabetes from the ALTITUDE study using multivariable Cox regression analysis, and then applied to short-term changes in risk markers observed in EXSCEL to predict the exenatide-induced impact on renal outcomes. Results Compared with placebo, mean HbA1c, BMI, SBP and total cholesterol were lower at 6 months with exenatide, as was the incidence of new microalbuminuria. The PRE score predicted a relative risk reduction for the 30% eGFR decline + ESRD endpoint of 11.3% (HR 0.89; 95% CI 0.83-0.94), compared with 12.7% (HR 0.87; 0.77-0.99) observed risk reduction. For the 40% eGFR decline + ESRD endpoint, the predicted and observed risk reductions were 11.0% (HR 0.89; 0.82-0.97) and 13.7% (HR 0.86, 0.72-1.04), respectively. Conclusions Integrating short-term risk marker changes into a multivariable risk score predicted the magnitude of renal risk reduction observed in EXSCEL.
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