Estrogen Receptor Pathway Activity Score to Predict Clinical Response or Resistance to Neoadjuvant Endocrine Therapy in Primary Breast Cancer

Endocrine therapy is important for management of patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer; however, positive ER staining does not reliably predict therapy response. We assessed the potential to improve prediction of response to endocrine treatment of a novel test that quantifies functional ER pathway activity from mRNA levels of ER pathway-specific target genes. ER pathway activity was assessed on datasets from three neoadjuvant-treated ER-positive breast cancer patient cohorts: Edinburgh: 3-month letrozole, 55 pre-/2-week/posttreatment matched samples; TEAM IIa: 3- to 6-month exemestane, 49 pre-/28 posttreatment paired samples; and NEWEST: 16-week fulvestrant, 39 pretreatment samples. ER target gene mRNA levels were measured in fresh-frozen tissue (Edinburgh, NEWEST) with Affymetrix microarrays, and in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples (TEAM IIa) with qRT-PCR. Approximately one third of ER-positive patients had a functionally inactive ER pathway activity score (ERPAS), which was associated with a nonresponding status. Quantitative ERPAS decreased significantly upon therapy (P < 0.001 Edinburgh and TEAMIIa). Responders had a higher pretreatment ERPAS and a larger 2-week decrease in activity (P = 0.02 Edinburgh). Progressive disease was associated with low baseline ERPAS (P = 0.03 TEAM IIa; P = 0.02 NEWEST), which did not decrease further during treatment (P = 0.003 TEAM IIa). In contrast, the staining-based ER Allred score was not significantly associated with therapy response (P = 0.2). The ERPAS identified a subgroup of ER-positive patients with a functionally inactive ER pathway associated with primary endocrine resistance. Results confirm the potential of measuring functional ER pathway activity to improve prediction of response and resistance to endocrine therapy.