Journal
RENEWABLE ENERGY
Volume 138, Issue -, Pages 416-433Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2019.01.073
Keywords
Urban energy system; Sao Paulo megacity; Energy endogenous potential; LEAP simulation model; Urban carbon emissions
Funding
- CAPES through the 'Programa de Doutorado-sanduiche no Exterior (PDSE)'
- Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP) [2015/03804-9]
- Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP) [15/03804-9] Funding Source: FAPESP
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This paper analyses Sao Paulo megacity's (Brazil) current and future energy system through the development of an urban energy model, using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System simulation software, covering the period from 2014 to 2030. The paper explores pathways for increasing renewable and endogenous energy resources in the megacity, reducing its dependency on energy imports and its greenhouse gases emissions. Seven scenarios are modelled considering an integrated multisector energy demand projection that combines energy endogenous potential assessment with improving access of the population to city' energy services. Currently, Sao Paulo imports 99% of its energy (% of exogenous resources). In 2030, 31% of endogenous resources can be achieved under a Business as Usual scenario, as well as a reduction up to 43% of greenhouse gases emissions from 2014 levels, by promoting both demand-side and supply-side energy efficiency. When considering better energy services' access for city inhabitants, accompanied by urban energy policies, a maximum of 25% of endogenous energy share in 2030 and an emission decrease of 24% below 2014 emissions is likely to be reached. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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