Blowout fire probability prediction of offshore drilling platform based on system dynamics

A Barrier Failure Model of offshore platform fire is proposed based on the analysis of historical accidents. On this basis, a fault tree is built to analyze the causes of fire accidents and the Fussell Vesely importance method is used to compare the contributions degree of the basic events. However, it is known that the traditional fault tree method has some limitations on predicting the dynamic probabilities of accidents. To improve the situation, a dynamic probability prediction model is proposed by integrating fault tree with a system dynamics model. Firstly, the dynamic probability of blowout fire for offshore drilling is predicted using the proposed model. Secondly, sensitivities of causal factors are analyzed based on mutual information to find out the key contributory factors to blowout fire. The research results provide safety managers with reliable and effective risk control strategies for preventing the occurrence of accidents.