Assessing the robustness and uncertainties of projected changes in temperature and precipitation in AR4 Global Climate Models over the Arabian Peninsula

An ensemble from different climate projections is essential for attaining robust climate change information in a particular region. To achieve this purpose, the results of an ensemble combining the Global Climate Models data from Couple Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3), have been employed for the Arabian Peninsula region. Different analysis methods comprising spatial plots with robustness analysis, bar plots with likelihood ranges, as well as line plots with likelihood spread along with decadal trend analysis have been carried out at annual as well as seasonal time scales for temperature and precipitation. Results of CMIP3 data for the B1, A1B and A2 scenarios indicate robust changes in temperature and precipitation in the future climate. Spatial plots show a robust summer temperature increase over the whole Peninsula which is higher in the summer season as compared to the winter, The Northern Arabian Peninsula (NAP) region also shows a higher temperature increase in comparison with the Southern Arabian Peninsula (SAP) during the summer season. Moreover the NAP region, which generally comes under the influence of disturbances originating from the Mediterranean Sea region during the winter season, has shown a robust decrease in precipitation during the winter season. Contrarily the SAP region, which remains dry during the winter season and comes under the influence of South Asian Summer Monsoon in the summer season, indicates a robust increase in precipitation during the summer season. This behavior is also obvious from bar plots, which show a gradual decrease (increase) in median precipitation values towards the end of the 21st century for all the three scenarios over the NAP (SAP) region during the winter (summer) season. Moreover, smaller lengths of full as well as likely ranges in the bar plot for NAP (SAP) shows that these precipitation projections are less uncertain as compared to SAP (NAP) for the winter (summer) season. Furthermore from the line plots, a consistent decreasing trend in precipitation (1.35% per decade, significant at 99%) can be observed, while SAP shows an increasing trend in precipitation (1.21% per decade, significant at 99%). Similarly for the case of temperature, a significant (99% level) increase is projected over NAP and SAP regions with values of 0.37 and 0.35 degrees C per decade respectively. Considering the vulnerability of the region to climate change impacts, these results call for immediate actions in developing the long-term strategies to deal with the adverse impacts of climate change up-to the end of the 21st century at a regional level. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.