Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Linette N. Boisvert, Melinda A. Webster, Chelsea L. Parker, Richard M. Forbes
Summary: The Arctic is experiencing faster warming, resulting in increased rainfall days and longer rain seasons, mainly in the autumn and in the North Atlantic and peripheral seas. Compared to other reanalysis datasets and CloudSat observations, ERA-Interim overestimates both the number of rainfall days and the amount of rainfall at temperatures below freezing, due to the employed cloud microphysics scheme.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein, Genevieve Flaspohler, Judah Cohen, Miruna Oprescu, Ernest Fraenkel, Lester Mackey
Summary: Subseasonal forecasting is crucial for water allocation, wildfire management, and disaster mitigation. However, current models suffer from errors in representing atmospheric dynamics and physics. To address this, we introduce an adaptive bias correction method that combines dynamical forecasts with observations using machine learning, leading to significant improvements in temperature and precipitation prediction skill.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Hooman Ayat, Jason P. Evans, Ali Behrangi
Summary: This study evaluated the uncertainties of a merged satellite product by comparing IMERG with a ground-based radar product in the eastern United States during hurricane days. The results showed that IMERG had better agreement with a bias reduction of 75% and 65% in terms of average precipitation intensity and area, respectively.
REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
A. P. Dimri, Pooja, G. Jeelani, U. C. Mohanty
Summary: During the study on Western Disturbances (WDs) and associated precipitation forming mechanism in changing time, it was discovered that significant amount of precipitation is received during Non-WDs days as well. The research highlighted that not all WDs lead to precipitation, and hence winter precipitation is the summation of all available precipitation, not just from WDs days. Therefore, the dynamics, connection, and changes in precipitation between WDs and Non-WDs days in the past three decades were examined. The research also evaluated the precipitation and moisture sources on Non-WDs days in the Western Himalayas, an area that has been less studied.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Mark Davidson
Summary: This article introduces a new model for Forecasting Coastal Evolution (ForCE) that address a variety of factors influencing coastal evolution, such as equilibrium and dynamic sea level changes. The model provides stable predictions and allows for comparison with field data.
COASTAL ENGINEERING
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam, Md. Rezaul Karim, Md Anarul Haque Mondol
Summary: The study analyzed the trends of hydroclimatic variables in the north and northeast regions of Bangladesh for 38 years and forecasted the changes for the next decade. Findings suggest that annual temperature and river water discharge are increasing, while annual rainfall is decreasing. Seasonal maximum trends were observed in different seasons.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Kalyan Sundar Som, Mousumi Dey
Summary: This study focuses on the rainfall trend in five districts of the Bundelkhand region in Madhya Pradesh, India. The results show no significant trend in annual rainfall, but indicate a higher susceptibility to drought in the later half of the study period. The forecast suggests a continued decrease in rainfall in the future.
ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Mohammad Sina Jahangir, John Quilty
Summary: This study introduces and evaluates the benefits of utilizing temporal hierarchical reconciliation methods for water resources forecasting, with an application to precipitation. The results show that improvements in accuracy due to reconciliation is dependent on various factors and different forecast models show different levels of performance with the reconciliation methods.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
Miguel Lopez, Carlos Sans, Sergio Valero
Summary: Electricity demand follows repetitive patterns, but factors like temperature or social events can disrupt these patterns, introducing unpredictable outlier data. A new methodology is introduced to classify special days without prior knowledge of the database. Classification of special days requires a deep understanding of consumer behavior on different days and periods of the year.
ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence
Donlapark Ponnoprat
Summary: Short-term precipitation forecasting is crucial for human activity planning, and a seasonally-integrated autoencoder (SSAE) model is proposed in this study to handle nonlinearity and detect seasonality in time series. Experimental results show that SSAE outperforms other models in various climates, and the seasonal component helps improve the correlation between forecast and actual values.
APPLIED SOFT COMPUTING
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yulong Zhong, Hongbing Bai, Wei Feng, Jing Lu, Vincent Humphrey
Summary: This study analyzes the trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) driven by precipitation and non-precipitation factors in the Chinese mainland from 2003 to 2016. The results show that TWS has increased in the Yangtze River basin, the northern part of the Tibetan Plateau, and part of Heilongjiang Province, while it has decreased in the Tien Shan Mountains, the southeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau, and the North China Plain. Precipitation and reservoir construction contribute to the rise of TWS, while anthropogenic activities and glacial melting due to global warming contribute to the decline. Long-term precipitation change has a significant impact on water storage in northern China.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
John T. Abatzoglou, Adrienne M. Marshall, A. C. Lute, Mohammad Safeeq
Summary: Temperature and precipitation are found to be covariant across timescales. In the contiguous United States, maximum temperatures are anomalously cool on wet days in the warm season, while minimum temperatures are anomalously warm on wet days in the cool season. Climate models exhibit a subtle precipitation dependence of temperature trends.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Mehmet Bilgili
Summary: Cooling Degree Days (CDD) is a technique that sums up the air temperature differences to quantify the deviation required for human comfort in summer. It is a useful tool for predicting cooling energy requirements in buildings. Accurate estimation of CDD trends is crucial for energy management and policy-making, and methods like SARIMA models can be used to forecast future values based on historical data. In this study, SARIMA models were used to forecast CDD values in high cooling demand regions in Turkey, indicating a slight increase in CDD values by 2031 due to global warming, which will impact building energy consumption policies.
Article
Economics
David Coble, Pablo Pincheira
Summary: This paper proposes a method using web search query data to predict building permits in the USA, showing that it outperforms other benchmarks and is robust to different specifications. The use of Google queries makes this approach simple and cost-effective for predicting building permits.
EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS
(2021)
Article
Mathematical & Computational Biology
Lemuel Clark Velasco, John Frail Bongat, Ched Castillon, Jezreil Laurente, Emily Tabanao
Summary: This study presents a strategy for days-ahead water level forecasting models using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for watersheds in tropical countries, and the results demonstrate its promising performance and application potential.
MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Paul W. Miller, Alan W. Black, Castle A. Williams, John A. Knox
JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY
(2016)
Article
Environmental Studies
Alan W. Black, Gabriele Villarini, Thomas L. Mote
WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY
(2017)
Article
Engineering, Environmental
Barry D. Keim, William D. Kappel, Geoffrey A. Muhlestein, Douglas M. Hultstrand, Tye W. Parzybok, Amanda B. Lewis, Edward M. Tomlinson, Alan W. Black
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION
(2018)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Alan W. Black, John A. Knox, Jared A. Rackley, Nicholas S. Grondin
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2019)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Vincent M. Brown, Alan W. Black, Barry D. Keim
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2019)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Vincent M. Brown, Barry D. Keim, Alan W. Black
JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
(2019)
Article
Environmental Studies
Dana M. Tobin, Matthew R. Kumjian, Alan W. Black
WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY
(2019)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Joshua M. Gilliland, Alan W. Black, Joshua D. Durkee, Victoria A. Murley
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2020)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Victoria A. Murley, Joshua D. Durkee, Joshua M. Gilliland, Alan W. Black
Summary: This study investigates convective and non-convective high-wind events across the eastern U.S. during a 43-year climatological period. Findings indicate a statistically significant decrease in mean wind speed for sustained convective and non-convective high-wind events. The study highlights the importance of understanding these events for mitigating damage and fatalities.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Ergonomics
Dana M. Tobin, Matthew R. Kumjian, Alan W. Black
Summary: The study estimates crash relative risk during different precipitation types in Kansas from 1995 to 2014 using matched-pair analysis and finds that the risk is enhanced during any precipitation type, with a hierarchy of risk based on precipitation type. For property damage crashes, freezing rain has the highest CRREs, followed by snow and rain. For casualty crashes, snow and freezing rain have significantly higher CRREs compared to rain, with no significant difference for sleet. The risk of a single-vehicle crash is higher than a multiple-vehicle crash during snow, sleet, and freezing rain, while the opposite is true for rain.
ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION
(2021)
Article
Ergonomics
Alan W. Black, Gabriele Villarini
ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION
(2019)
Article
Geography
David A. Call, Richard M. Medina, Alan W. Black
PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER
(2019)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Castle A. Williams, Paul W. Miller, Alan W. Black, John A. Knox
JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGY
(2017)