Estimating and testing the microbial causal mediation effect with high-dimensional and compositional microbiome data

Motivation: Recent microbiome association studies have revealed important associations between microbiome and disease/health status. Such findings encourage scientists to dive deeper to uncover the causal role of microbiome in the underlying biological mechanism, and have led to applying statistical models to quantify causal microbiome effects and to identify the specific microbial agents. However, there are no existing causal mediation methods specifically designed to handle high dimensional and compositional microbiome data. Results: We propose a rigorous Sparse Microbial Causal Mediation Model (SparseMCMM) specifically designed for the high dimensional and compositional microbiome data in a typical three-factor (treatment, microbiome and outcome) causal study design. In particular, linear log-contrast regression model and Dirichlet regression model are proposed to estimate the causal direct effect of treatment and the causal mediation effects of microbiome at both the community and individual taxon levels. Regularization techniques are used to perform the variable selection in the proposed model framework to identify signature causal microbes. Two hypothesis tests on the overall mediation effect are proposed and their statistical significance is estimated by permutation procedures. Extensive simulated scenarios show that SparseMCMM has excellent performance in estimation and hypothesis testing. Finally, we showcase the utility of the proposed SparseMCMM method in a study which the murine microbiome has been manipulated by providing a clear and sensible causal path among antibiotic treatment, microbiome composition and mouse weight.