4.0 Article

Bayesian robustness to outliers in linear regression and ratio estimation

Journal

BRAZILIAN JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
Volume 33, Issue 2, Pages 205-221

Publisher

BRAZILIAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
DOI: 10.1214/17-BJPS385

Keywords

Built-in robustness; simple linear regression; ratio estimator; finite populations; population means; super heavy-tailed distributions

Funding

  1. NSERC (Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada)
  2. FRQNT (Le Fonds de recherche du Quebec-Nature et technologies)
  3. SOA (Society of Actuaries)

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Whole robustness is a nice property to have for statistical models. It implies that the impact of outliers gradually vanishes as they approach plus or minus infinity. So far, the Bayesian literature provides results that ensure whole robustness for the location-scale model. In this paper, we make two contributions. First, we generalise the results to attain whole robustness in simple linear regression through the origin, which is a necessary step towards results for general linear regression models. We allow the variance of the error term to depend on the explanatory variable. This flexibility leads to the second contribution: we provide a simple Bayesian approach to robustly estimate finite population means and ratios. The strategy to attain whole robustness is simple since it lies in replacing the traditional normal assumption on the error term by a super heavy-tailed distribution assumption. As a result, users can estimate the parameters as usual, using the posterior distribution.

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