Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution

A Simple Pedagogical Model Linking Initial-Value Reliability with Trustworthiness in the Forced Climate Response

(2018) T. N. Palmer et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

(2018) Robert Vautard et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

An R package for climate forecast verification

(2018) Nicolau Manubens et al.   ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE

The Heat of the Flow: Thermal Equilibrium in Gravitational Mass Flows

(2018) Jan-Thomas Fischer et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

How Suitable is Quantile Mapping For Postprocessing GCM Precipitation Forecasts?

(2017) Tongtiegang Zhao et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution

(2017) Antje Weisheimer et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Attribution of extreme weather and climate events overestimated by unreliable climate simulations

(2016) Omar Bellprat et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Evaluating Simulated Fraction of Attributable Risk Using Climate Observations

(2016) Fraser C. Lott et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

How climate change affects extreme weather events

(2016) P. Stott   SCIENCE

The attribution question

(2016) Friederike E. L. Otto et al.   Nature Climate Change

Extreme weather events and climate change concern

(2015) David M. Konisky et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes

(2015) E. M. Fischer et al.   Nature Climate Change

Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events

(2015) Peter A. Stott et al.   Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective

(2014) Stephanie C. Herring et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Reliability of African climate prediction and attribution across timescales

(2014) Fraser C Lott et al.   Environmental Research Letters

On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

(2014) A. Weisheimer et al.   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Mega-heatwave temperatures due to combined soil desiccation and atmospheric heat accumulation

(2014) Diego G. Miralles et al.   Nature Geoscience

weather@home-development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution

(2014) N. Massey et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset

(2013) I. Harris et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

A New HadGEM3-A-Based System for Attribution of Weather- and Climate-Related Extreme Events

(2012) Nikolaos Christidis et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles

(2011) Antje Weisheimer et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave?

(2011) Randall Dole et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Origin and predictability of the extreme negative NAO winter of 2009/10

(2011) T. Jung et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction

(2011) J. Slingo et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts

(2009) Adam A. Scaife et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Reply

(2009) T. N. Palmer et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts

(2008) T. N. Palmer et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

SST Forcings and Sahel Rainfall Variability in Simulations of the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries

(2008) M. Biasutti et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part I: Two-Meter Temperatures

(2008) Renate Hagedorn et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW