Quantifying the Potential Yield and Yield Gap of Chinese Wheat Production

Quantifying potential yield (PY) and yield gap (YG) is essential for prioritizing research and formulating food security policies. Here we used the highest recorded yield published in the literature based on 213 sites (n = 548) across China to estimate PY, the best farmers' yield (the mean yield of 94th to 99th decile) according to 4552 farm surveys to estimate attainable yield (AY) in five wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) agro-ecological regions in China. These data were compared with the average farmers' yield (FY) to assess YG. The PY averaged 9.0 Mg ha(-1) while AY was 8.0 Mg ha(-1). The FY averaged 5.6 Mg ha(-1). As a result, YG between PY and FY was 3.4 Mg ha(-1) (FY/PY = 62%), and YG between AY and FY was 2.3 Mg ha(-1) (FY/AY = 71%). Furthermore, PY and yield gaps varied considerably among different regions due to several factors, including water availability, climate, and management practices. Our findings highlight the potential for improving the wheat yield in China and regional advantages for wheat production.