4.7 Article

The Potential Distribution of Tree Species in Three Periods of Time under a Climate Change Scenario

Journal

FORESTS
Volume 9, Issue 10, Pages -

Publisher

MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/f9100628

Keywords

Bioclimatic niche; Durango; Mexican tree species; MaxEnt; non-parametric correlation

Categories

Funding

  1. Secretaria de Educacion Publica (SEP) [IDCA: 24332, PRODEP-UNSIJ-PTC-028]

Ask authors/readers for more resources

Species distribution models have become some of the most important tools for the assessment of the impact of climatic change, and human activity, and for the detection of failure in silvicultural or conservation management plans. In this study, we modeled the potential distribution of 13 tree species of temperate forests distributed in the Mexican state Durango in the Sierra Madre Occidental, for three periods of time. Models were constructed for each period of time using 19 climate variables from the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy algorithm) modelling algorithm. Those constructed for the future used a severe climate change scenario. When comparing the potential areas of the periods, some species such as Pinus durangensis (Martinez), Pinus teocote (Schiede ex Schltdl. & Cham.) and Quercus crassifolia (Bonpl.) showed no drastic changes. Rather, the models projected a slight reduction, displacement or fragmentation in the potential area of Pinus arizonica (Engelm.), P. cembroides (Zucc), P. engelmanni (Carr), P. leiophylla (Schl), Quercus arizonica (Sarg), Q. magnolifolia (Nee) and Q. sideroxila (Humb. & Bonpl.) in the future period. Thus, establishing conservation and reforestation strategies in the medium and long term could guarantee a wide distribution of these species in the future.

Authors

I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.

Reviews

Primary Rating

4.7
Not enough ratings

Secondary Ratings

Novelty
-
Significance
-
Scientific rigor
-
Rate this paper

Recommended

Article Biodiversity Conservation

Unexpected spatial patterns of natural regeneration in typical uneven-aged mixed pine-oak forests in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico

Juan F. Maciel-Najera, Javier Hernandez-Velasco, M. Socorro Gonzalez-Elizondo, Jose Ciro Hernandez-Diaz, Carlos A. Lopez-Sanchez, Pablo Antunez, Claudia Edith Bailon-Soto, Christian Wehenkel

GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION (2020)

Article Plant Sciences

Influence of physiography, soil and climate on Taxus globosa

Pablo Antunez

Summary: The study examined how temperature, soil pH, precipitation, and physiography affect the occurrence of an endangered species, Taxus globosa. It found that variables like mean temperature in the warmest month and summer dryness index significantly influence the distribution of the species. These findings provide a scientific basis for conservation and management efforts to protect the species.

NORDIC JOURNAL OF BOTANY (2021)

Article Forestry

Climatic Variables Differentially Influence Neotropical Plant Species of Conservation Concern

Pablo Antunez, Christian Wehenkel, Collins Byobona Kukunda, Jose Ciro Hernandez-Diaz

Summary: Understanding the specific microhabitat requirements of threatened species and how environmental parameters affect them is crucial. This study examined the response patterns of four threatened plant species to temperature, precipitation, and physiographic variables, and analyzed the contributions of these variables to their distributions. The findings revealed differences in temperature and precipitation ranges among species and non-linear responses to environmental variations. These results contribute to defining the environmental spaces of these species and have implications for their adaptation and survival.

JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY (2023)

Article Forestry

Main environmental variables influencing the abundance of plant species under risk category

Pablo Antunez

Summary: This study investigated the impact of climatic and physiographic variables on endemic, rare, and endangered species in major ecoregions in Mexico using large data sets and multiple statistical analyses. Results showed that different climate variables influenced plant populations in different climatic regions, which could support more precise management and conservation plans for plant species diversity under different global warming scenarios.

JOURNAL OF FORESTRY RESEARCH (2022)

Article Plant Sciences

Effect of altitude, slope and geographic exposure on tree fern distribution

Pablo Antunez, Pablito Marcelo Lopez Serrano, Gabriel Gonzalez Adame, Ernesto Alonso Rubio Camacho, Maria Magdalena Mendoza Diaz

Summary: This study examined the distribution patterns of four tree fern species in relation to elevation, slope, and geographic exposure in La Chinantla, Mexico. The results showed significant differences in the proportions of each species as a function of each topographic variable, with slope having the greatest influence. The distribution of the species studied displayed a highly random pattern due to the heterogeneous topography.

ACTA BOTANICA MEXICANA (2022)

Article Forestry

Light management in tree nurseries to produce Pithecellobium dulce for the reforestation of degraded lands in Southern Mexico's tropical dry forests

Erickson Basave-Villalobos, Victor Manuel Cetina-Alcala, Miguel Angel Lopez-Lopez, Carlos Trejo, Carlos Ramirez-Herrera, Pablo Antunez, Victor Conde-Martinez

Summary: Nursery practices are crucial for the production of high-quality seedlings and the survival rates of reforestation plantations in the dry tropics. This study highlights the importance of light management in nurseries, as it affects the morphology, photosynthesis efficiency, and growth of Pithecellobium dulce plants. The study also found that seedling survival in the field is influenced by the light conditions in the nursery, with greater light intensity leading to better survival rates.

BOIS ET FORETS DES TROPIQUES (2022)

Article Plant Sciences

PoTENTIAL DISTRIBUTIoN oF RIPARIAN TREES IN THE BAjo RIo GRIjALvA SUB BASIN

Mario Ernesto Suarez-Mota, Jose Manuel Hernandez Ramirez, Lizbeth Luna Bautista, Maria Magdalena Mendoza Diaz, Wenceslao Santiago-Garcia, Faustino Ruiz-Aquino

Summary: This study used potential distribution models to examine the distribution of 17 riparian tree species. The results showed that slope, aspect, and elevation were the main variables influencing the potential distribution of the species. Haematoxylum campechianum stood out as the species with the greatest environmental difference compared to others.

BOTANICAL SCIENCES (2022)

Article Forestry

Comparative Analysis of Three Forest Management Plans in Southern Mexico

Wenceslao Santiago-Garcia, Lourdes Bautista-Perez, Gerardo Rodriguez-Ortiz, Geronimo Quinonez-Barraza, Faustino Ruiz-Aquino, Mario Ernesto Suarez-Mota, Elias Santiago-Garcia, Tania Leyva-Pablo, Melquiades Cortes-Perez, Manuel de Jesus Gonzalez-Guillen

Summary: This study compared three forest management plans implemented in the community of Ixtlan de Juarez in Mexico and evaluated their contributions to forest productivity and conservation. The results showed that with increased management intensity, the productivity and regeneration of the forest improved without affecting forest richness and diversity.

FORESTS (2022)

Article Forestry

Characterization of tannin extracts derived from the bark of four tree species by HPLC and FTIR

Faustino Ruiz-Aquino, Rossy Feria-Reyes, Jose Guadalupe Rutiaga-Quinones, Luis Humberto Robledo-Taboada, Rosalio Gabriel-Parra

Summary: The objective of this work was to extract and quantify tannins from the bark of four tree species. The extraction process used 90% ethanol as solvent at a temperature of 70 degrees C for 2 hours. The total extract percentages were determined, and the condensed tannins were characterized using FTIR and HPLC. The results showed that Quercus crasifolia and Arbutus xalapensis were potential sources of tannins.

FOREST SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (2023)

Article Ecology

Evidence of the variation in the rate of change of temperature and precipitation

Pablo Antunez

Summary: This study investigated the spatial variations of temperature and precipitation variables with higher sensitivity to changes in elevation above sea level, considering the effects of latitude and solar radiation. The results showed that the rate of change of these variables varied at different latitudinal and altitudinal gradients.

ECOLOGICAL INFORMATICS (2023)

Article Forestry

QUANTILE REGRESSION AS A COMPLEMENTARY TOOL FOR MODELLING BIOLOGICAL DATA WITH HIGH VARIABILITY

P. Antunez, C. Wehenkel, J. C. Hernandez-Diaz, M. Garza-Lopez

Summary: This study examines the robustness of quantile regression (QR) in modeling data with high presence of extreme values, comparing it with least squares regression models. The results show that QR significantly reduces errors and leverage effect, and accurately identifies the impact of regressors on specific quantiles of the distribution. The novel aspect of this approach is its ability to reveal detailed behavioral patterns of the response variable, especially for points far from the mean and median.

JOURNAL OF TROPICAL FOREST SCIENCE (2023)

Article Forestry

Effects of Distance and Neighbor Size on Abies hickelii: The Asymmetric Competition Is Aggravated in an Endangered Species

Pablo Antunez, Ivan Hernandez-Cruz, Fatima Ibrahim-Abdulsalam, Ricardo Clark-Tapia, Faustino Ruiz-Aquino, Cesar Valenzuela-Encinas

Summary: One hypothesis in forest ecology suggests that competition among individual plants is asymmetric or unidirectional. Assessing the impact of their closest competitors is crucial for understanding the spatial distribution and interactions of endangered species. Through analysis, it was found that increasing the distance from neighbors resulted in an average diameter gain of 1.13 cm for each meter. The height results were more sensitive to neighbor distance changes. Intraspecific competition was found to be more significant than interspecific competition. Selective thinning during early growth stages was recommended for this species.

FORESTS (2023)

Article Forestry

Pine Bark as a Potential Source of Condensed Tannin: Analysis through Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), and Energy Dispersive X-ray (EDX)

Rossy Feria-Reyes, Sergio Obed Ramirez-Cruz, Faustino Ruiz-Aquino, Luis Humberto Robledo-Taboada, Marco Antonio Sanchez-Medina, Oscar Francisco Mijangos-Ricardez, Rosalio Gabriel-Parra, Mario Ernesto Suarez-Mota, Ramiro Puc-Kauil, Jhazeel Porcallo-Vargas

Summary: This study aimed to evaluate the tannin content in the bark of five pine species from a forest harvesting area in Mexico. The bark samples were extracted using ethanol or water and the tannins were quantified. Analysis techniques like FTIR, SEM, and EDX were used to identify the chemical composition and elemental analysis of the tannin extracts. The results showed that two species, Pinus patula and Pinus ayacahuite, had a higher concentration of condensed tannins in the bark.

FORESTS (2023)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Spatio-temporal dengue risk modelling in the south of Thailand: a Bayesian approach to dengue vulnerability

Fatima Ibrahim Abdulsalam, Pablo Antunez, Warit Jawjit

Summary: This study uses a Bayesian model and the CARBayesST package of R software to model the spatio-temporal epidemiology of dengue fever in the southern region of Thailand from 2002 to 2018. The results show that increasing temperature, rainy days, and sea level pressure are associated with higher occurrence and incidence risk of dengue, while increasing wind speed suggests a protective factor. The study also identifies high-risk districts for future prevention and control efforts.

PEERJ (2023)

Article Forestry

Allometric equations to estimate aboveground and belowground biomass of Pinus patula Schiede ex Schltdl. & Cham

Arcelio Martinez-Dominguez, Faustino Ruiz-Aquino, Wenceslao Santiago-Garcia, Pablo Antunez, Miguel Angel Lopez-Lopez, Cesar Valenzuela-Encinas, Rossy Feria-Reyes

FOREST SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (2020)

No Data Available