Stochastic load profile construction for the multi-tier framework for household electricity access using off-grid DC appliances

To improve access to electricity, decentralized, solar-based off-grid solutions like Solar Home Systems (SHSs) and rural micro-grids have recently seen a prolific growth. However, electrical load profiles, usually the first step in determining the electrical sizing of off-grid energy systems, are often non-existent or unreliable, especially when looking at the hitherto un(der)-electrified communities. This paper aims to construct load profiles at the household level for each tier of electricity access as set forth by the multi-tier framework (MTF) for measuring household electricity access. The loads comprise dedicated off-grid appliances, including the so-called super-efficient ones that are increasingly being used by SHSs, reflecting the off-grid appliance market's remarkable evolution in terms of efficiency and price. This study culminated in devising a stochastic, bottom-up load profile construction methodology with sample load profiles constructed for each tier of the MTF. The methodology exhibits several advantages like scalability and adaptability for specific regions and communities based on community-specific measured or desired electricity usage data. The resulting load profiles for different tiers shed significant light on the technical design directions that current and future off-grid systems must take to satisfy the growing energy demands of the un(der)-electrified regions. Finally, a constructed load profile was also compared with a measured load profile from an SHS active in the field in Rwanda, demonstrating the usability of the methodology.