Recalibration and cross-validation of pesticide trapping equations for vegetative filter strips (VFS) using additional experimental data

Vegetative filter strips (VFS) are widely used for mitigating pesticide inputs into surface waters via surface runoff and erosion. To simulate the effectiveness of VFS the model VFSMOD is frequently used. While VFSMOD simulates infiltration and sedimentation mechanistically, the reduction of pesticide load in surface runoff by the VFS is calculated with the empirical Sabbagh equation. This multiple regression equation has not been widely accepted by regulatory authorities, because its reliability has not been sufficiently demonstrated yet. A major drawback is the small number of calibration data points (n = 47). To corroborate and improve the predictive capability of the Sabbagh equation, additional experimental VFS data were compiled from the available literature. The enlarged dataset (n = 244) was used to recalibrate the Sabbagh equation, the recently proposed Chen equation and a set of reduced Sabbagh equations with fewer independent variables, with ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and to test an alternative, regression-free mass balance approach. The Sabbagh equation fitted the dataset slightly better than the Chen equation (coefficient of determination R-2 = 0.82 vs. 0.79). The purely predictive mass balance approach performed slightly worse (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency NSE = 0.74), but significantly better than the Sabbagh and Chen equations with their old coefficients. In a k-fold cross validation analysis to assess the predictive capability of the various regression equations, both the full Sabbagh and the reduced Sabbagh equations with two or more variables outperformed the Chen equation. Finally, a maximum-likelihood-based calibration and uncertainty analysis were conducted for the Sabbagh equation using the DREAM_ZS algorithm and two different likelihood functions. The DREAM simulations corroborated the parameter values obtained with OLS regression. The study confirmed the suitability of the Sabbagh equation for regulatory modelling of pesticide trapping in VFS. However, the regression-free mass balance approach turned out to be a viable alternative. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.