Evolving Bayesian Emulators for Structured Chaotic Time Series, with Application to Large Climate Models

History matching for exploring and reducing climate model parameter space using observations and a large perturbed physics ensemble

(2013) Daniel Williamson et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Fast linked analyses for scenario-based hierarchies

(2013) Daniel Williamson et al.   JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS

Obtaining diverse behaviors in a climate model without the use of flux adjustments

(2013) Kuniko Yamazaki et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

The effect of the nugget on Gaussian process emulators of computer models

(2012) Ioannis Andrianakis et al.   COMPUTATIONAL STATISTICS & DATA ANALYSIS

Observed interannual variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N

(2012) G. McCarthy et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Efficient emulators of computer experiments using compactly supported correlation functions, with an application to cosmology

(2011) Cari G. Kaufman et al.   Annals of Applied Statistics

Multivariate probabilistic projections using imperfect climate models part I: outline of methodology

(2011) David M. H. Sexton et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Monitoring the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

(2011) Darren Rayner et al.   DEEP-SEA RESEARCH PART II-TOPICAL STUDIES IN OCEANOGRAPHY

Bayesian policy support for adaptive strategies using computer models for complex physical systems

(2011) D Williamson et al.   JOURNAL OF THE OPERATIONAL RESEARCH SOCIETY

Large near-inertial oscillations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

(2011) Adam T. Blaker et al.   OCEAN MODELLING

Mechanism-based emulation of dynamic simulation models: Concept and application in hydrology

(2010) P. Reichert et al.   COMPUTATIONAL STATISTICS & DATA ANALYSIS

Continuous, Array-Based Estimates of Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport at 26.5°N

(2010) W. E. Johns et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Cases for the nugget in modeling computer experiments

(2010) Robert B. Gramacy et al.   STATISTICS AND COMPUTING

Gaussian process emulation of dynamic computer codes

(2009) S. Conti et al.   BIOMETRIKA

The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions

(2009) Ed Hawkins et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Analyzing the Climate Sensitivity of the HadSM3 Climate Model Using Ensembles from Different but Related Experiments

(2009) Jonathan Rougier et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Bayesian emulation of complex multi-output and dynamic computer models

(2009) Stefano Conti et al.   JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL PLANNING AND INFERENCE

Small Sample Bayesian Designs for Complex High-Dimensional Models Based on Information Gained Using Fast Approximations

(2009) Jonathan A. Cumming et al.   TECHNOMETRICS

A Bayesian calibration approach to the thermal problem

(2008) Dave Higdon et al.   COMPUTER METHODS IN APPLIED MECHANICS AND ENGINEERING

Causes of Interannual–Decadal Variability in the Meridional Overturning Circulation of the Midlatitude North Atlantic Ocean

(2008) Arne Biastoch et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Efficient Emulators for Multivariate Deterministic Functions

(2008) Jonathan Rougier   JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL AND GRAPHICAL STATISTICS

Computer Model Calibration Using High-Dimensional Output

(2008) Dave Higdon et al.   JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION

Kriging metamodeling in simulation: A review

(2007) Jack P.C. Kleijnen   EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH