Journal
SCIENCE ADVANCES
Volume 4, Issue 8, Pages -Publisher
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaq0932
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Funding
- Rathmann Family Foundation
- U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research [DE-AC02-05CH11231]
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Removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) combined with emission reduction is necessary to keep climate warming below the internationally agreed upon 2 degrees C target. Soil organic carbon sequestration through agricultural management has been proposed as a means to lower atmospheric CO2 concentration, but the magnitude needed to meaningfully lower temperature is unknown. We show that sequestration of 0.68 Pg C year(-1) for 85 years could lower global temperature by 0.1 degrees C in 2100 when combined with a low emission trajectory [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6]. This value is potentially achievable using existing agricultural management approaches, without decreasing land area for food production. Existing agricultural mitigation approaches could lower global temperature by up to 0.26 degrees C under RCP 2.6 or as much as 25% of remaining warming to 2 degrees C. This declines to 0.14 degrees C under RCP 8.5. Results were sensitive to assumptions regarding the duration of carbon sequestration rates, which is poorly constrained by data. Results provide a framework for the potential role of agricultural soil organic carbon sequestration in climate change mitigation.
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