Journal
TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY
Volume 65, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.18887
Keywords
feedbacks; long-term; ENSO; climate change; radiative kernels
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This study examines the radiative feedbacks resulting from changes in the climate over the last 30 yr. These 'short-term' feedbacks correspond to both external changes in the forcing [from greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols etc.] and internal climate variations [mostly due to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)]. They differ from the 'long-term' (century scale, mainly due to GHG warming) feedbacks both in magnitude (by 24% on the global average) and geographical distribution, according to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 multi-model dataset. In addition, the inter-model spread of the short-term feedbacks is larger than the long-term ones even for the models with the best ENSO performance, which indicates that important aspects of the ENSO variability are still poorly understood and/or simulated. Information from observations and from advanced reanalysis systems can be very useful to improve the model short-term climate responses. However, long and accurate observational records are critical in order to obtain confident results.
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