Article
Environmental Sciences
Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Andy Jones, James Haywood, Roland Seferian, Pierre Nabat, Olivier Boucher, Ewa Monica Bednarz, Ulrike Niemeier
Summary: This study assesses the impacts of stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) and solar dimming on stratospheric ozone and identifies differences in their effects. These differences are partly attributed to variations and limitations in aerosol microphysics, chemistry, and ozone photolysis in the models.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yawen Liu, Yaman Liu, Minghuai Wang, Xinyi Dong, Yiqi Zheng, Manish Shrivastava, Yun Qian, Heming Bai, Xiao Li, Xiu-Qun Yang
Summary: A substantial decline of summertime aerosol loading aloft over the southeastern US in recent decades due to reduced anthropogenic aerosols has been identified. This interaction leads to a stronger decline in column-integrated aerosol optical depth and a greater increase in radiative fluxes over the southeastern than northeastern US. The anthropogenic-biogenic interaction explains more than 60% of the increasing trend in clear-sky surface downward radiative fluxes, with implications for achieving the Paris Agreement temperature targets.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jiaxu Guo, Yali Luo, Jiefan Yang, Kalli Furtado, Hengchi Lei
Summary: The effects of anthropogenic and sea salt aerosols on heavy rainfall in coastal areas were investigated using a model. The results showed different initial responses of clouds to these aerosols, with increased anthropogenic aerosols causing larger cloud droplets while sea salt aerosols resulted in fewer but larger cloud droplets. In polluted environments, rain number concentration was reduced and raindrops became larger and faster, leading to a shift in the distribution of surface hourly rain rate towards higher values. The accumulation of 24-hour rainfall increased in the centers but only slightly on average. The inclusion of sea salt aerosols further weakened the microphysical processes and convective intensity, resulting in a shift towards lower hourly rain rates and a slight decrease in the average 24-hour rainfall accumulation. The overall impacts of aerosols, especially sea salt aerosols, were small due to the strong synoptic forcing controlling the heavy rainfall production in this case.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Lena Katharina Jaenicke, Rene Preusker, Nicole Docter, Juergen Fischer
Summary: This study investigates the estimation of aerosol layer height (ALH) using satellite-based radiance measurements and presents a sensitivity study and uncertainty estimation for dust and smoke cases. The results show that under the assumption of a known aerosol type, ALH can be accurately retrieved using OLCI satellite data. The successful retrieval of ALH using OLCI data is validated against measurements from the TROPOMI instrument.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Su Yang, Zijiang Zhou, Yu Yu, Martin Wild
Summary: There was a significant increase in aerosol loading in China after the 1960s due to rapid industrialization, followed by a gradual reduction in the early 2000s with improvements in air quality, causing 'dimming' and 'brightening'. Research shows that high levels of pollution and associated aerosols suppress cloud growth and reduce optical depth.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yawen Liu, Minghuai Wang, Yun Qian, Aijun Ding
Summary: The decline in atmospheric absorption over eastern central China due to anthropogenic Black Carbon (BC) emissions reduction is identified, and an emergent constraint on the effective radiative forcing from aerosol-radiation interaction (ERFari) of anthropogenic BC is established. The constrained range for the top-of-atmosphere ERFari over China is found to be higher than existing estimates, supporting the strong warming effect of BC over China and highlighting the need to improve BC simulations over source regions.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Zixuan Tang, Jing Tian, Yongqiang Zhang, Xuanze Zhang, Junlong Zhang, Ning Ma, Xiaojie Li, Peilin Song
Summary: This study used CMIP6 models and the BMA method to attribute the SSR trend in eastern China from 1961 to 2014. The results show that anthropogenic aerosols have the largest contribution to the decreasing SSR trend.
JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
(2022)
Article
Plant Sciences
Shaowei Li, Gang Fu
Summary: Uncertainties about the impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change on forage nutrition storage of grasslands can limit the adaptive management of grasslands across the whole Tibetan Plateau. The study investigates these impacts using random forest models and finds that warming and increased precipitation do not always increase forage nutrition storage, while cooling and decreased precipitation do not always reduce it. Radiation change has a stronger influence on forage nutrition storage compared to temperature and precipitation changes. Human activities alter the effects of climate change on forage nutrition storage, with the impacts increasing linearly with temperature and decreasing elevation, and showing quadratic relationships with longitude, precipitation, and radiation.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Wenjian Hua, Minhua Qin, Aiguo Dai, Liming Zhou, Haishan Chen, Wanxin Zhang
Summary: The recent summer surface air temperature changes over densely populated Eurasia show a non-uniform pattern, with amplified warming over Europe and East Asia but weak warming over Central Asia, forming a wave train-like structure. External forcing may play a significant role in the SAT multidecadal variations over Europe-west Asia and EA, while internal variations in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans primarily influence the recent SAT over CA. Forced SAT multidecadal variations over Eurasia are mainly attributed to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols according to large ensemble model simulations.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Gerrit de Leeuw, Hanqing Kang, Cheng Fan, Zhengqiang Li, Chenwei Fang, Ying Zhang
Summary: In order to reduce air pollution in China, measures have been taken to decrease aerosol and trace gas concentrations over the past two decades. The effects of these measures on aerosol concentrations were evaluated by comparing observed Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from 2010 to 2021 with model simulations. The model data showed the influence of meteorological factors on AOD variation, while the satellite data indicated a decrease in AOD mostly due to anthropogenic effects with substantial contributions from meteorological factors. The analysis suggests that the Three-year Action Plan for Clean Air was less effective than the Clean Air Action Plan.
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jian Yang, Huiying Zheng, Yue Ma, Pufan Zhao, Hui Zhou, Song Li, Xiao Hua Wang
Summary: This study proposes a background noise model and a method for estimating aerosol optical depths over oceans using the ICESat-2 photon-counting lidar. The results show that the proposed method has potential for practical applications when applied to larger areas.
REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Zhongxi Lin, Guixing Chen
Summary: Anthropogenically-induced changes in radiation balance affect the diurnal variation of regional circulations, leading to cooler days and warmer nights over the North China plains in July and August. This is mainly determined by the dominant cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols during the daytime and the warming effect at night. These changes in regional circulations result in anomalous wind patterns and increased moisture convergence, leading to an increasing trend in nighttime precipitation over the North China plains.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jianyu Liu, Jiawen Zhang, Dongdong Kong, Xingyu Feng, Shuyun Feng, Mingzhong Xiao
Summary: The study reveals that anthropogenic forcings, especially greenhouse gases, dominate the changes in terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET), explaining a significant portion of the observed trends. While CMIP6 simulations perform well in the Northern Hemisphere, they are lacking in the Southern Hemisphere. The influence of aerosols in Europe stands out, with attributable changes to aerosols being 2.4 times that of greenhouse gases.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jiannong Quan, Yangang Liu, Xingcan Jia, Lin Liu, Youjun Dou, Jinyuan Xin, John H. Seinfeld
Summary: Long-term measurements in China show that increases in aerosol levels and global warming have opposite effects on fog lifetime; aerosols primarily prolong fog lifetime by delaying fog dissipation, while warming decreases fog lifetime by delaying fog formation. The overall aerosol effect on fog lifetime in China is dominant, particularly in the highly polluted regions of Eastern China.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Xinyue Hao, Yiquan Jiang, Xiu-Qun Yang, Xiaohong Liu, Yang Zhang, Minghuai Wang, Yuan Liang, Yong Wang
Summary: This study investigates the impacts of South Asian anthropogenic emissions on the spring climate in East Asia, proposing two potential pathways associated with the black carbon-induced climate feedbacks around the Tibetan Plateau. The northern pathway is mainly influenced by the TP warming induced by the BC snow darkening effect, while the southern pathway is associated with the BC elevated heat pump hypothesis, affecting precipitation in Southern East Asia.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Viktoria Cologna, Reto Knutti, Naomi Oreskes, Michael Siegrist
Summary: The study found that scientists and the public have differing views on scientists' roles in political and public engagement but agree that scientists should actively participate and increase efforts. Most citizens believe that scientists should advocate for climate-related policies, work with policymakers, but should not support climate protests.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Nathan P. Gillett, Megan Kirchmeier-Young, Aurelien Ribes, Hideo Shiogama, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Guillaume Gastineau, Jasmin G. John, Lijuan Li, Larissa Nazarenko, Nan Rosenbloom, Oyvind Seland, Tongwen Wu, Seiji Yukimoto, Tilo Ziehn
Summary: Research demonstrates a significant human influence on global climate, particularly through emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Urgent action is needed to address climate change in order to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Marius Zumwald, Benedikt Knusel, David N. Bresch, Reto Knutti
Summary: The study utilized the quantile regression forest algorithm, citizen weather stations, open government, and remote sensing data to model urban temperature patterns during a heat wave in Zurich, Switzerland in June 2019. The approach accurately mapped urban heat at high spatial and temporal resolution, demonstrating its potential for informing localized urban policy and decision-making.
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Marius Zumwald, Christoph Baumberger, David N. Bresch, Reto Knutti
Summary: This study discusses the accuracy of using data-driven models for environmental science predictions and the methods for studying the phenomenon. It proposes three criteria to assess the relationships learned by machine learning algorithms to improve the understanding of modeled phenomena.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Claudia Gessner, Erich M. Fischer, Urs Beyerle, Reto Knutti
Summary: This study investigates the potential for unseen extreme heat waves by analyzing preindustrial climate model simulations. The findings suggest that historical heat waves in Chicago, Europe, and Russia could have been substantially exceeded even without further global warming. The study highlights the importance of combining different approaches to assess extreme heat wave scenarios beyond observational records for adaptation and resilience building.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
E. M. Fischer, S. Sippel, R. Knutti
Summary: With the impact of global warming, the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events are constantly increasing, and this change mainly depends on the rate of warming rather than the level.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
A. M. Fischer, K. M. Strassmann, M. Croci-Maspoli, A. M. Hama, R. Knutti, S. Kotlarski, C. Schar, C. Schnadt Poberaj, N. Ban, M. Bavay, U. Beyerle, D. N. Bresch, S. Bronnimann, P. Burlando, A. Casanueva, S. Fatichi, I Feigenwinter, E. M. Fischer, M. Hirschi, M. A. Liniger, C. Marty, I Medhaug, N. Peleg, M. Pickl, C. C. Raible, J. Rajczak, O. Rossler, S. C. Scherrer, C. Schwierz, S. Seneviratne, M. Skelton, S. L. Sorland, C. Spirig, F. Tschurr, J. Zeder, E. M. Zubler
Summary: To address climate change, Switzerland has developed user-oriented climate change scenarios through close collaboration between academia and administration. These scenarios show that Switzerland will face dry summers, heavy precipitation, more hot days, and snow-scarce winters in the future. Approximately half of these changes could be alleviated by strong global mitigation efforts by the mid-century.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Marius Egli, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Iris de Vries, Reto Knutti
Summary: Future changes in precipitation have significant impacts on societies worldwide, but uncertainties persist due to limited observational coverage, climate variability, and model disagreement. In this study, we propose a new method to reconstruct seasonally averaged zonal precipitation using climate model simulations and sparse rain-gauge data. The reconstructed precipitation shows a signal likely caused by human influence, as it exceeds the variability range of pre-industrial control simulations and is consistent with historical simulations driven by external forcing.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
E. M. Fischer, U. Beyerle, L. Bloin-Wibe, C. Gessner, V. Humphrey, F. Lehner, A. G. Pendergrass, S. Sippel, J. Zeder, R. Knutti
Summary: Recent temperature extremes have exceeded previous records and it is questioned whether these intense events could have been predicted using climate models or if there are greater intensities to come. This study demonstrates how an ensemble boosting approach can generate physically plausible storylines for hotter heatwaves, indicating the possibility of even greater intensities in places like Greater Chicago and Paris. Combining different lines of evidence and process understanding is crucial in establishing confidence in such extreme events and informing planning for future unprecedented intensities.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Anna L. Merrifield, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Vincent Humphrey, Reto Knutti
Summary: With the increase in the number of models in the CMIP archive, guidance is needed to interpret and utilize the abundance of newly available climate information. This study addresses the issues of model dependence and model subselection, providing methods to navigate the CMIP6 and multi-model ensembles. The proposed frameworks, based on model dependence and cost function minimization, offer a novel and transparent approach to select models and guide users in the increasingly complex CMIP landscape.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Iris Elisabeth de Vries, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline Greene Pendergrass, Reto Knutti
Summary: This study uses statistical method ridge regression to detect forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation. The results show that forced changes can be detected in the observational datasets, but the detection may vary depending on the dataset used and the uncertainty associated with the observations.
EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
(2023)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Elfatih A. B. Eltahir, Erich M. M. Fischer, Reto Knutti, Sarah E. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Christoph Schar, Sonia I. I. Seneviratne, Antje Weisheimer, Heini Wernli
Summary: Heatwaves pose a major threat to human health and ecosystems, and predicting them is crucial for preparedness. Current capabilities allow for skillful prediction of heatwaves on daily to weekly timescales, but become challenging beyond a few weeks. However, tendencies for above-average temperatures can still be estimated. Future projections suggest that heatwaves will become more frequent, persistent, and intense worldwide, with amplified trends in mid-latitudes due to soil drying. There will also be an increased occurrence of humid heatwaves, particularly in southern Asia. Improving heatwave prediction and projection requires a better understanding of relevant drivers and their model representation.
NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Review
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Charles D. Koven, Florent Brient, Ben B. B. Booth, Rosie A. Fisher, Reto Knutti
Summary: Studies suggest that strong relationships in emergent constraints may arise from common structural model assumptions, but oversimplification could lead to overconfident constraints. While emergent constraints have potential to be powerful tools for understanding ensemble response variation, their naive application to reduce uncertainties in unknown climate responses could result in bias and overconfidence.
EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Annkatrin Burgstall, Sven Kotlarski, Ana Casanueva, Elke Hertig, Erich Fischer, Reto Knutti
Summary: This paper introduces a straightforward approach to generate multi-model climate projections of intense urban heat, based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art global and regional climate model simulations from EURO-CORDEX. The results suggest that urban areas will be more strongly affected by rising temperatures than rural sites, especially during nighttime.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivie, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Seferian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, Tilo Ziehn
Summary: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) presents a range of outcomes regarding global climate projections, focusing on geophysical analysis. By comparing CMIP6 projections with CMIP5 results, it is found that there are more variations in future temperature changes than previously thought.
EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
(2021)