4.3 Article

Stochastic epidemic models revisited: analysis of some continuous performance measures

Journal

JOURNAL OF BIOLOGICAL DYNAMICS
Volume 6, Issue 2, Pages 189-211

Publisher

TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2011.552737

Keywords

extinction time; head lice; recovery time; stochastic SIS model; stochastic SIR model; time to infection

Funding

  1. Government of Spain (Department of Science and Innovation)
  2. European Commission [MTM 2008-01121]

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We deal with stochastic epidemic models having a set of absorbing states. The aim of the paper is to study some continuous characteristics of the epidemic. In this sense, we first extend the classical study of the length of an outbreak by investigating the whole probability distribution of the extinction time via Laplace transforms. Moreover, we also study two almost new epidemic descriptors, namely, the time until a non-infected individual becomes infected and the time until the individual is removed from the infective group. The obtained results are illustrated by numerical examples including an application to a stochastic SIS model for head lice infections.

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