Process-based models are required to manage ecological systems in a changing world

Theoretical Predictions for How Temperature Affects the Dynamics of Interacting Herbivores and Plants

(2011) Mary I. O’Connor et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic

(2011) W. W. L. Cheung et al.   ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE

Quantifying variance components in ecological models based on expert opinion

(2011) Christina A. Czembor et al.   JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

Decision-making under great uncertainty: environmental management in an era of global change

(2011) Stephen Polasky et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Ecological–economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change

(2011) Brendan A. Wintle et al.   Nature Climate Change

Forest processes from stands to landscapes: exploring model forecast uncertainties using cross-scale model comparison

(2010) Michael J. Papaik et al.   CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH

Probabilistic life cycle analysis model for evaluating electric power infrastructure risk mitigation investments

(2010) Royce A. Francis et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Controlling established invaders: integrating economics and spread dynamics to determine optimal management

(2010) Rebecca S. Epanchin-Niell et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Explanative power of variables used in species distribution modelling: an issue of general model transferability or niche shift in the invasive Greenhouse frog (Eleutherodactylus planirostris)

(2010) Dennis Rödder et al.   NATURWISSENSCHAFTEN

Species Distribution Models: Ecological Explanation and Prediction Across Space and Time

(2009) Jane Elith et al.   Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics

The importance of multimodel projections to assess uncertainty in projections from simulation models

(2009) Denis Valle et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Incorporating consumer–resource spatial interactions in reserve design

(2009) Bronwyn Rayfield et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

(2009) William W.L. Cheung et al.   FISH AND FISHERIES

Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change

(2009) WILLIAM W. L. CHEUNG et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Estimating demographic models for the range dynamics of plant species

(2009) Juliano S. Cabral et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Threshold models in restoration and conservation: a developing framework

(2009) Katharine N. Suding et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

The Value of Coastal Wetlands for Hurricane Protection

(2008) Robert Costanza et al.   AMBIO

Coastal Impacts Due to Sea-Level Rise

(2008) Duncan M. FitzGerald et al.   Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Resource management in a changing and uncertain climate

(2008) Joshua J Lawler et al.   FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Using expert knowledge to assess uncertainties in future polar bear populations under climate change

(2008) Saffron J. O’Neill et al.   JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

The stochastic nature of larval connectivity among nearshore marine populations

(2008) D. A. Siegel et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude

(2008) C. A. Deutsch et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Predictive Models of Forest Dynamics

(2008) D. Purves et al.   SCIENCE

Linking Traits to Energetics and Population Dynamics to Predict Lizard Ranges in Changing Environments

(2007) Lauren B. Buckley   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Altered ecosystem carbon and nitrogen cycles by plant invasion: a meta-analysis

(2007) Chengzhang Liao et al.   NEW PHYTOLOGIST

Predicting global change impacts on plant species’ distributions: Future challenges

(2007) Wilfried Thuiller et al.   PERSPECTIVES IN PLANT ECOLOGY EVOLUTION AND SYSTEMATICS