Metabolic syndrome status over 2 years predicts incident chronic kidney disease in mid-life adults: a 10-year prospective cohort study

We investigated whether changes in MetS status over two years modify the 10-year risk of CKD and proteinuria. A prospective cohort study was conducted in 7,251 subjects without CKD at baseline. We categorized subjects according to MetS status over two years: non-MetS (no MetS at either visit), intermittent MetS (positive for MetS at one assessment), and persistent MetS (positive for MetS at two assessments). The hazard ratio (HR) of new-onset CKD over 10-year was calculated using Cox models. During the 10-year follow-up period, 923 (12.7%) developed CKD. Compared to the non-MetS group, the fully adjusted HR for new-onset CKD was the highest in the persistent MetS group (HR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.23-1.90), followed by the intermittent MetS group (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.04-1.59) (P for trend <0.001). The HR for developing proteinuria was 1.79 (95% CI, 1.15-2.79) in the persistent MetS group and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.42-1.19) in the intermittent MetS group when the non-MetS group was considered as the reference group. Temporal changes in MetS status over two years influenced the 10-year risk of incident CKD and proteinuria. Our findings suggest that monitoring and strictly controlling MetS are important in preventing renal function decline.