Article
Psychology, Multidisciplinary
Weiwei Zhang, Yingying Jiang, Chao Wang, Liqi Zhu
Summary: During adolescence, peer influence on group decision-making can lead to either increased risk-seeking or risk aversion. This study found that adolescents were more risk averse towards money problems in individual decision-making, but were more risk seeking for life problems in group decision-making. Additionally, adolescents tended to use a strategy of one person putting forward an idea followed by agreement from others, while adults tended to vote.
CURRENT PSYCHOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Psychology, Mathematical
Julian R. Matthews, Patrick S. Cooper, Stefan Bode, Trevor T. -J. Chong
Summary: Contemporary decision-making models focus on estimating the final value of each alternative. Recent research has shown that non-instrumental information can still influence behavior. This study demonstrates that the opportunity to passively observe the consequences of a decision can modulate risky behavior, even without affecting the final outcome. These findings highlight the importance of anticipatory information in decision-making.
PSYCHONOMIC BULLETIN & REVIEW
(2023)
Article
Psychology, Biological
Kenta Kimura, Noriaki Kanayama, Kentaro Katahira
Summary: This study investigates the influence of the cardiac cycle on decision-making under uncertainty. Participants in a gambling experiment were asked to choose between options with a sure payout or uncertain options with varying winning probabilities, ambiguity, and monetary amounts. The results show that most participants exhibited lower risk aversion during the cardiac ventricular systole trial compared to the diastole trial. Model-based exploratory analysis indicates that the change in the bias against the utility of risky options better captures the higher propensity to take risks during the systole trial, rather than a change in risk attitude. These findings provide evidence that fluctuations in cardiac afferent signals can affect risky decision-making.
BIOLOGICAL PSYCHOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Operations Research & Management Science
Andrew J. Keith, Darryl K. Ahner
Summary: Recent advances in decision making have incorporated both risk and ambiguity, with a variety of uncertainty representations impacting the expressiveness and tractability of decision models. Robust and distributionally robust optimization methods have been surveyed, along with applications highlighting potential areas for further research.
ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
(2021)
Review
Psychology, Clinical
John R. Purcell, Emma N. Herms, Jaime Morales, William P. Hetrick, Krista M. Wisner, Joshua W. Brown
Summary: The investigation of risky decision-making is important in clinical science, but the use of different behavioral tasks has led to a lack of agreement on risky decision-making within psychosis-spectrum disorders. This review analyzes the literature on behavioral risky decision-making to understand how specific task parameters contribute to differences in task performance and their associations with symptoms and cognitive functioning.
CLINICAL PSYCHOLOGY REVIEW
(2022)
Article
Behavioral Sciences
Marc-Lluis Vives, Joseph Heffner, Oriel FeldmanHall
Summary: Decisions made under uncertainty are influenced by conceptual representations of uncertainty, which capture both probabilistic and valenced features. These representations predict individuals' engagement in risky decision-making. People generally have separate representations for uncertainty and certainty, although a minority exhibit significant overlap. These findings demonstrate the importance of conceptualizing uncertainty in understanding risky decisions.
COGNITIVE AFFECTIVE & BEHAVIORAL NEUROSCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Psychology, Multidisciplinary
Wei Guo, Xin-Rong Chen, Hu-Chen Liu
Summary: Research shows that Easterners are more risk intolerant but more willing to accept ambiguous conditions in the gain domain compared to Westerners. Surprisingly, Easterners and Westerners have similar attitudes towards risk and ambiguity in the loss domain. Cultural differences between Western and Eastern countries may explain the higher level of risk aversion observed among East Asians.
BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Economics
Agnieszka Tymula, Xueting Wang
Summary: Adolescents tend to make more welfare-decreasing decisions in the presence of peers, leading to substantial losses in terms of lives, injury, and missed opportunities. When observed by peers, 18-24-year-old adolescents become more risk-tolerant in gains and losses but more loss averse.
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION
(2021)
Article
Psychology, Multidisciplinary
Atefeh Rezaei, Fatemeh Soltanifar
Summary: Risk-taking poses a serious threat to the well-being of adolescents, and the family plays a significant role in protecting them from engaging in risky behaviors. This study found a significant correlation between overall healthy family functioning and adolescents' risky behaviors, with decision-making styles mediating this association.
CURRENT PSYCHOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence
Rituparna Chutia
Summary: The concept of Z-number, proposed by Zadeh in 2011, is a pair of fuzzy numbers for decision-making problems, risk assessment, linear programming, etc. Ranking Z-numbers is crucial, and existing methods have limitations, hence the need for a new method. This paper introduces a new method based on value and ambiguity, showing promising performance in various types of Z-numbers.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS
(2021)
Article
Psychology, Developmental
A. -l. Goddings, I. Dumontheil, R. M. Viner, S. -j. Blakemore
Summary: Puberty in males is positively correlated with risky decision-making behavior, as indicated by self-report questionnaire and testosterone levels. Functional magnetic resonance imaging revealed higher activation in key brain regions, including the nucleus accumbens and caudate, during successful risky decision-making trials. Less pubertally mature males showed increased activation in the insula, cingulate cortex, prefrontal cortex, putamen, and orbitofrontal cortex during unsuccessful risky decision trials. These findings suggest a puberty-related shift in neural activation that may contribute to increased risk-taking behaviors in adolescence.
DEVELOPMENTAL COGNITIVE NEUROSCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Substance Abuse
Zoe Guttman, Mark Mandelkern, Dara G. Ghahremani, Milky Kohno, Andy C. Dean, Edythe D. London
Summary: The study compared BART performance between drug-abstinent participants with MUD and healthy control participants, and found that those with MUD exhibited slower behavioral updating. The research also revealed that dysregulation of D2-type receptor signaling in the striatum and globus pallidus may contribute to this behavioral deficit.
DRUG AND ALCOHOL DEPENDENCE
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Erkin Asutay, Daniel Vastfjall
Summary: This study uses a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach to analyze data from a risky choice task and finds that recently encountered choice parameters shape affective experience and impact subsequent choice behavior. Self-reported arousal prior to choice is associated with increased loss aversion, risk aversion, and choice consistency, providing clear behavioral evidence for continuous affective modulation of subjective value computations during risky decision-making.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2022)
Article
Management
Soheil Ghili, Peter Klibanoff
Summary: This study examines preference conditions in choice under uncertainty and explores the relationship between monotonicity in optimal mixtures and ambiguity-sensitive behavior. It reveals an incompatibility between monotonicity in optimal mixtures and ambiguity aversion for certain classes of preferences exhibiting ambiguity-sensitive behavior. The research also shows that smooth ambiguity preferences can satisfy both properties as long as they are not too ambiguity averse.
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Management
Anna Monika Wiewiora, Peter Joseph O'Connor
Summary: This article explores the types of ambiguity faced by project managers and how they respond to them. Through surveys and interviews, it identifies the categories of ambiguity and the practices used by experienced project managers to effectively manage ambiguity.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT
(2022)
Article
Psychology, Multidisciplinary
Ralph Hertwig, Dirk U. Wulff
Summary: The modern world is filled with risks that can be learned through consulting symbolic and descriptive material or through personal experience. The fluidity of risks and cognitive impact of individuals play important roles in how risks are learned and responded to.
PERSPECTIVES ON PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Behavioral Sciences
Vanessa Knobl, Mattea Dallacker, Ralph Hertwig, Jutta Mata
Summary: Children eat most of their meals in a family context, making family meals a key environment for learning about healthy food. This study examined seven different family mealtime routines and their predictive value for children's healthier nutrition. The findings suggest that parental modeling and a positive mealtime atmosphere are the most important predictors for healthier child nutrition in daily family meal settings.
Article
Neurosciences
Stefan Appelhoff, Ralph Hertwig, Bernhard Spitzer
Summary: Having control over when to stop sampling can improve decision accuracy, enhance the accumulation of decision signals, and enhance the encoding of numerical sample information in EEG patterns. However, it does not affect early sensory signals or the extent of sample information leakage.
Article
Psychology, Educational
Andrea Gradassi, Scarlett K. Slagter, Ana da Silva Pinho, Lucas Molleman, Wouter van den Bos
Summary: This study demonstrates the use of social network analysis in improving learning outcomes by matching peers for peer learning and cultivating social cohesion in the classroom. The findings suggest that the distance between peers in the social network affects their tendency to use social information, and this effect is mediated by subjective closeness. Additionally, the results show that the use of social information is influenced by the peer's social status and perceived smartness.
Review
Psychology, Biological
Philipp Lorenz-Spreen, Lisa Oswald, Stephan Lewandowsky, Ralph Hertwig
Summary: The impact of digital media on democracy varies depending on the specific political variables and the stage of development of the country, with both positive and negative associations observed.
NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR
(2023)
Article
Psychology, Multidisciplinary
Lou M. Haux, Jan M. Engelmann, Ruben C. Arslan, Ralph Hertwig, Esther Herrmann
Summary: Risk preference plays a significant role in people's decisions regarding health, wealth, and well-being. In this study, chimpanzees exhibited risk-taking behavior that shared similarities with humans, suggesting that key dimensions of risk preference may emerge independently of human cultural evolution. Chimpanzees showed consistency in their risk preferences across domains and measurements, displayed ambiguity aversion, and males were more prone to risk-taking than females. Furthermore, risk-taking behavior peaked in young adulthood.
PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Psychology, Multidisciplinary
Anastasia Kozyreva, Sam Wineburg, Stephan Lewandowsky, Ralph Hertwig
Summary: Low-quality and misleading information online often grab people's attention by evoking curiosity, outrage, or anger. To resist the influence of such information, people need to adopt new mental habits and develop the competence of critical ignoring, which involves choosing what to ignore and where to invest limited attentional capacities.
CURRENT DIRECTIONS IN PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Psychology, Experimental
Leonidas Spiliopoulos, Ralph Hertwig
Summary: The study determined the scope and prevalence of decision models in different environments and evaluated the accuracy of predictions made by these models.
JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY-GENERAL
(2023)
Article
Psychology
Jan K. Woike, Ralph Hertwig, Gerd Gigerenzer
Summary: This study aimed to test two competing theoretical views on how people infer the Bayesian posterior probability: single-process theories and toolbox theories. Through analyzing data from a large number of participants, little support was found for the tested single-process theories. However, simulations showed that a single process, the weighing-and-adding model, could best fit the aggregate data and achieve the best out-of-sample prediction. Testing five non-Bayesian rules plus Bayes's rule, a toolbox was found to capture 64% of the inferences.
COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Anastasia Kozyreva, Stefan M. Herzog, Stephan Lewandowsky, Ralph Hertwig, Philipp Lorenz-Spreen, Mark Leiser, Jason Reifler
Summary: In online content moderation, protecting freedom of expression and preventing harm are conflicting values. Little is known about people's judgments and preferences in content moderation. We conducted a survey experiment with US respondents to understand their attitudes towards problematic social media posts on various topics. The majority prioritize removing harmful misinformation over protecting free speech. Partisan differences were observed, with Republicans being less willing to remove posts or penalize accounts across all scenarios. Our findings can inform the design of transparent content moderation rules for harmful misinformation.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2023)
Article
Psychology, Developmental
Maud Hensums, Wouter van den Bos, Geertjan Overbeek, Helle Larsen
Summary: In this study, the researchers examined the compliance of YouTube vloggers with COVID-19 regulations and how viewers responded to it. They also investigated the effects of vlogger behavior and viewer evaluations on adolescents' attitudes, intentions, and behavior related to COVID-19.
JOURNAL OF ADOLESCENCE
(2023)
Article
Psychology, Experimental
Mads Kock Pedersen, Carlos Mauricio Castano Diaz, Qian Janice Wang, Mario Alejandro Alba-Marrugo, Ali Amidi, Rajiv V. Basaiawmoit, Carsten Bergenholtz, Morten H. Christiansen, Miroslav Gajdacz, Ralph Hertwig, Byurakn Ishkhanyan, Kim Klyver, Nicolai Ladegaard, Kim Mathiasen, Christine Parsons, Janet Rafner, Anders R. Villadsen, Mikkel Wallentin, Blanka Zana, Jacob F. Sherson
Summary: Rapid individual cognitive phenotyping has the potential to revolutionize personalized learning, employment practices, and precision psychiatry. A game-based tool called Skill Lab was developed to assess cognitive abilities while providing an engaging narrative. Using a citizen science platform, a comprehensive validation was conducted, and reliable models were constructed to predict eight cognitive abilities based on in-game behavior. The results demonstrate the feasibility of rapid in-the-wild assessment of cognitive abilities and its potential for population-scale benchmarking and individualized mental health diagnostics.
Article
Psychology, Multidisciplinary
Ralph Hertwig, Stefan M. Herzog, Anastasia Kozyreva
Summary: Inequalities and injustices in liberal societies are caused by implicit social bias, and using algorithms to make crucial decisions can both mitigate and perpetuate biases. Rawls's veil of ignorance and deliberate ignorance can help shield individuals, institutions, and algorithms from biases. The research agenda should focus on improving human judgment accuracy by concealing biasing information and proposing interdisciplinary research questions.
PERSPECTIVES ON PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Psychology, Biological
Ralph Hertwig
Summary: Chater & Loewenstein criticize how behavioral sciences and public policy align with corporations to blame public health and societal issues on individual weaknesses, thus diverting attention from systemic reforms. However, their analysis fails to adequately hold the field accountable for its excessive focus on human irrationality and weaknesses.
BEHAVIORAL AND BRAIN SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Psychology, Applied
Ralph Hertwig
Summary: Two concepts of Mill's harm principle and the distinction between public and private spheres should be revisited in today's 'ultra-processed' world, where advanced technologies exploit human psychology and jeopardize citizens' well-being. Systemic interventions like regulation and taxation are necessary to minimize harm, which should be supplemented with interventions informed by behavioral science that guide individual behaviors. Empowering individuals to self-nudge, rather than paternalistic nudging, allows them to design their own decision environments and choice architectures.
BEHAVIOURAL PUBLIC POLICY
(2023)