Journal
JOURNAL OF BUILDING PERFORMANCE SIMULATION
Volume 8, Issue 3, Pages 135-144Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/19401493.2014.896947
Keywords
Bayesian calibration; energy simulation model; uncertainty analysis; energy audit
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Funding
- US Department of Energy [DE-AC02-06CH11357]
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This paper examines how calibration performs under different levels of uncertainty in model input data. It specifically assesses the efficacy of Bayesian calibration to enhance the reliability of EnergyPlus model predictions. A Bayesian approach can be used to update uncertain values of parameters, given measured energy-use data, and to quantify the associated uncertainty. We assess the efficacy of Bayesian calibration under a controlled virtual-reality setup, which enables rigorous validation of the accuracy of calibration results in terms of both calibrated parameter values and model predictions. Case studies demonstrate the performance of Bayesian calibration of base models developed from audit data with differing levels of detail in building design, usage, and operation.
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