Article
Environmental Sciences
Cameron Wobus, Jeremy Porter, Mark Lorie, Jeremy Martinich, Rachel Bash
Summary: This study utilizes a new flood risk dataset to project increased damages from riverine flooding in the United States under high warming scenarios, as well as the cost-effectiveness of different adaptation measures. The results show that floodproofing, elevation and property acquisition can be cost-effective in certain situations, depending on various factors such as return on investment and assumed rate of climate change. Incorporating climate change into benefit-cost calculations can increase the number of properties meeting specific benefit-cost thresholds, highlighting the importance of understanding current flood risks alongside future climate change impacts in optimizing adaptation decision making.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Miyuki Hino, Marshall Burke
Summary: The study found that the US housing market does not fully incorporate flood risk into prices, with larger price penalties for commercial buyers and markets with higher risk awareness. Houses in flood zones in the US are currently overvalued by $43.8 billion, raising concerns about the stability of the real estate market.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2021)
Article
Water Resources
Erwin Rottler, Axel Bronstert, Gerd Buerger, Oldrich Rakovec
Summary: The genesis of floods in large river basins is complex, with precipitation, snowmelt, and different tributaries contributing to high water levels. To better understand flood events in the Rhine River basin, we conducted hydrological simulations and analyzed historic and projected streamflow peaks. Our findings highlight the importance of changes in snow cover and precipitation characteristics, and the correlation between flood magnitudes and areal extents of an event. Further research is needed to improve our understanding of the climatic impact on the Rhine and beyond.
HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Wei Qi, Lian Feng, Junguo Liu, Xueping Zhu, Yanli Liu, Xingxing Kuang, Zhigao Xie
Summary: Human displacement risk (HDR) caused by floods in China will increase with different levels of global warming. Climate change, rather than population variations, is the main driver of the HDR increase. The relationship between flood protection levels and human displacement follows an exponential function. Increasing flood protection standards can reduce future HDR.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Roberta Padulano, Guido Rianna, Pierfranco Costabile, Carmelina Costanzo, Giuseppe Del Giudice, Paola Mercogliano
Summary: This research investigates the impact of using a large ensemble of climate projections on flood hazard estimations in urban areas, aiming to understand the propagation of future climate variability in terms of flooding outputs. Results show that flood features increase more slowly than rainfall, and the relationship between rainfall and flood increase is linear, with decreasing slope with increasing return period. The spread in rainfall input due to the use of different climate projections does not inflate through the impact modelling stages, highlighting the potential impacts of climate change on urban flood risk.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
C. M. Cooper, S. Sharma, R. E. Nicholas, K. Keller
Summary: This article discusses the need for information design in managing flood risks and emphasizes the importance of uncertainty characterization, model diagnostics, and evaluating how decision-makers use information.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Max Steinhausen, Dominik Paprotny, Francesco Dottori, Nivedita Sairam, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Lorenzo Alfieri, Stefan Luedtke, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schroeter
Summary: Flooding is the most costly natural hazard in Europe, and the current climate and socioeconomic changes are expected to further increase future losses. The study reveals that urban centers and their surrounding regions are the hotspots of flood risk in Europe, with flooding risks projected to rise in the British Isles and Central Europe throughout the 21st century.
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Augusto Getirana, Sujay Kumar, Goutam Konapala, Wanshu Nie, Kim Locke, Bryant Loomis, Charon Birkett, Martina Ricko, Marc Simard
Summary: Satellite observations show that coastal Louisiana has experienced significant land loss in recent decades, which can be attributed to climate change and human activities. This study investigates the impacts of sea level rise and climate-induced hydrological change on flood risk in southern Louisiana and examines the effectiveness of water management through flood control structures. The findings reveal that climate-induced hydrological change has increased flood risk and population vulnerability, while water management interventions can mitigate these risks.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Kiyong Park, Sang-Hyun Choi, Insang Yu
Summary: This study aims to minimize flood damage in urban areas by analyzing and ranking the flood risk effect on buildings. Vulnerability analysis and exposure analysis were conducted to evaluate the flood risk of each building type in five regions of Ulsan City.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Samuel Rufat, W. J. Wouter Botzen
Summary: Flood damages have been increasing worldwide due to climate change, and it is crucial to enhance public awareness of flood risk to support flood risk management policies. However, previous studies on flood risk perceptions have reported mixed and contradictory results. This study aims to provide insights into the factors influencing flood risk perceptions by analyzing a large representative sample. The findings suggest that older people with higher income and education levels are more likely to express their flood risk perceptions.
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Viktor Rozer, Swenja Surminski
Summary: Despite improvements in flood risk management and new regulations, losses from flooding remain high. The construction of new assets in flood prone areas continues to be a significant driver of these losses. Over the last decade, there has been a moderate increase in the yearly rates of new homes built in flood risk areas, with significant differences between regions and flood types.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Marco A. Torres, Jose F. Chavez-Cifuentes, Eduardo Reinoso
Summary: This paper presents a simplified flood model based on cellular automata for simulating a large number of flood scenarios. The model evaluates the flow process in DEM cells from top to bottom, classifying the cells into four different states. The quality and efficiency of the model are evaluated using benchmarking tests and compared with other 2D models.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Hieu Ngo, Anouk Bomers, Denie. C. M. Augustijn, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Tatiana Filatova, Bas van der Meulen, Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher, Juergen Herget
Summary: Reconstruction of severe historic flood events helps to quantify design discharges for large return periods. Reducing the uncertainty of design discharges is important for constructing proper flood defences. However, reconstructions of peak discharges are associated with uncertainties due to historic topography accuracy, hydraulic roughness, and historical hydrograph shape.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2023)
Editorial Material
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Linda Nordling
Summary: Southern Africa aims to eliminate malaria by 2030, but the prediction of the disease's occurrence remains a challenge.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Henry Ngenyam Bang, Nicholas Church Burton
Summary: Although England has a long history of major floods, recent years have seen an increase in frequency and intensity of floods due to climate risks. Challenges to flood risk management in England include limited funding, exacerbated flood risks from climate change, and poor community preparedness for contemporary floods.
CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, Christopher J. White, Alexandre M. Ramos, Philip J. Ward, Olivia Martius, Indiana Olbert, Kathryn Roscoe, Henrique M. D. Goulart, Jakob Zscheischler
Summary: Consideration of compound drivers, hazards, and impacts is often overlooked in the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) cycle, leading to limited understanding of risk and actions. This article provides examples of how compound thinking can affect different areas of disaster risk management and emphasizes the need for practical guidelines. The authors identify five DRR categories and present studies that highlight the role of considering compound factors in early warning, emergency response, infrastructure management, long-term planning, and capacity building.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
S. Khanal, S. Tiwari, A. F. Lutz, B. V. D. Hurk, W. W. Immerzeel
Summary: The climate of High Mountain Asia (HMA) has been changing in recent decades, with increasing temperatures and inconsistent precipitation changes. This study used daily ERA5 reanalysis data to explore changes in climate variables in HMA along the full altitudinal range. The results showed winter warming and summer wetting dominating in the interior part of HMA, with significant increasing trends in heatwave occurrences and heavy precipitation in certain areas. The changes in climatic extremes indicate potential increases in hazards such as floods, landslides, and droughts, impacting economic production and infrastructure.
JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Karin van der Wiel, Christian Folberth, Esther Boere, Bart van den Hurk
Summary: While soybeans are heavily consumed worldwide, their production is concentrated in the US, Brazil, and Argentina, which makes the supply chain vulnerable to regional disruptions. In 2012, extreme weather conditions in these regions led to low soybean yields and record-high global prices. This study examines the impact of climate change on simultaneous extreme crop failures like the one in 2012, and proposes adaptation measures to reduce future risks.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Robert Sakic Trogrlic, Karina Reiter, Philip J. Ward, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Jaroslav Mysiak, Dana Stuparu, Stefania Gottardo
Summary: In our interconnected world, the impacts of natural hazards surpass geographical and administrative boundaries due to their interrelationships with socio-economic dimensions. Tackling multi-hazards and multi-risks is challenging due to their complexities, hindering a holistic perspective for assessment and management purposes. This article proposes a six-step framework for analyzing and managing risk across various levels, aiming to integrate multi-hazard and multi-risk considerations.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Judith N. Claassen, Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Elco E. Koks, Timothy Tiggeloven, Marleen C. de Ruiter
Summary: This study presents the MYRIAD-Hazard Event Sets Algorithm (MYRIAD-HESA), which compiles multi-hazard event sets based on historical data. By compiling a global multi-hazard event set database, researchers gain new insights into the frequency and hotspots of different multi-hazard events. The study also incorporates a temporal dimension, the time-lag, and analyzes it using North America as a case study. The open availability of MYRIAD-HES further enhances understanding of multi-hazard events in the disaster risk community.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Huazhi Li, Toon Haer, Anais Couasnon, Alejandra R. Enriquez, Sanne Muis, Philip J. Ward
Summary: Current coastal flood risk assessments lack the ability to incorporate spatial dependence of floods at large scales. This paper introduces a global synthetic dataset of spatially-dependent extreme sea level events, using a conditional multivariate statistical model applied to 40-year global reanalysis sea levels. The dataset provides 10,000 years of extreme events with realistic spatial dependence, enabling the development of accurate large-scale risk profiles and supporting effective coastal management plans.
WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Amir AghaKouchak, Laurie S. Huning, Mojtaba Sadegh, Yue Qin, Yannis Markonis, Farshid Vahedifard, Charlotte A. Love, Ashok Mishra, Ali Mehran, Renee Obringer, Annika Hjelmstad, Shrideep Pallickara, Shakil Jiwa, Martin Hanel, Yunxia Zhao, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Mazdak Arabi, Steven J. Davis, Philip J. Ward, Mark Svoboda, Roger Pulwarty, Heidi Kreibich
Summary: Integrating impacts and cascading hazards into drought monitoring can enhance prediction and mitigation of drought events. Current monitoring efforts mainly focus on hazards and overlook drought-related compound risks such as heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and debris flows. We advocate for impact-based drought monitoring and its integration with broader drought-related hazards.
NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Tim Busker, Hans de Moel, Bart van den Hurk, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Summary: The Horn of Africa is facing a severe and prolonged drought, caused by consecutive failed rainy seasons. This study investigates the potential for early action for droughts by using seasonal forecasts, and shows that these forecasts have significant economic value for triggering early action in Kenya and Somalia.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Dirk Eilander, Anais Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, Philip J. Ward
Summary: This study presents a globally applicable framework for compound flood risk assessments and applies it to a case study in the Sofala province of Mozambique. The results show that coastal flooding causes the highest risk in the region despite more widespread fluvial and pluvial flood hazards. The effectiveness of three risk reduction measures is also assessed.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Emma E. Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
Summary: Projections of changes in extreme droughts under future climate conditions are associated with large uncertainties. This study investigates the impact of global warming on soil moisture drought severity in west-central Europe. The results show that global warming will significantly increase drought risk in the region.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, Marina Baldissera Pacchetti, Esther Boere, Alessio Ciullo, Liese Coulter, Suraje Dessai, Ertug Ercin, Henrique M. D. Goulart, Raed Hamed, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Elco Koks, Patryk Kubiczek, Anders Levermann, Reinhard Mechler, Maarten van Meersbergen, Benedikt Mester, Robin Middelanis, Katie Minderhoud, Jaroslav Mysiak, Sadhana Nirandjan, Gijs van den Oord, Christian Otto, Paul Sayers, Jacob Schewe, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jana Sillmann, Dana Stuparu, Thomas Vogt, Katrien Witpas
Summary: Physical climate storylines are proposed as a method to explore complex impact transmission pathways and event cascades under future climate conditions. They are useful for climate risk assessment in complex domains. Development guidelines are needed to consistently develop and interpret the storyline event analyses for effective role in climate risks assessments.
CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Summary: Coastal flooding is caused by the combination of high tide and storm surge, which is driven by strong winds and low pressure in cyclones. Accurate modeling of coastal inundation is crucial to understand the threat of flooding and identify at-risk areas. This study develops a method called HGRAPHER to generate hydrographs and provides a global dataset of storm tide hydrographs. The dataset represents the typical shape of an extreme storm tide at different locations along the global coastline, and can be used for dynamic inundation modeling across different spatial scales.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Taro Kunimitsu, Marina Baldissera Pacchetti, Alessio Ciullo, Jana Sillmann, Theodore G. Shepherd, Mehmet Umit Taner, Bart van den Hurk
Summary: Physical climate storylines, when embedded in a causal network framework, allow user value judgments to be incorporated and support decision making. The constructed causal network can include value judgments and respond to user-selected policy options, leading to individualized policy recommendations.
CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Dirk Eilander, Anais Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, Philip J. Ward
Summary: Coastal river deltas are vulnerable to flooding from various factors. The co-occurrence of multiple flood drivers can worsen the impacts. Existing global flood models do not consider compound flooding, and local-scale models are difficult to scale up. This study develops a globally applicable framework for compound flood hazard modeling, incorporating interactions between all drivers. The framework performs well in simulating historical compound flood events and provides insights into dominant flood drivers and transition zones. This study emphasizes the importance of understanding compound flood interactions for flood adaptation and preparedness.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)