Modeling Nonmotorized Travel Demand at Intersections in Calgary, Canada Use of Traffic Counts and Geographic Information System Data

In September 2009, the City Council of Calgary, Canada, approved Plan It Calgary, which proposed policies that focused on the development of resilient neighborhoods through the intensification and diversification of urban activities around transit stations and routes. More intensive development and mixed land use encourage nonmotorized trips and reinforce comfortable, safe, and walkable streets. The development of high-density, mixed-use, and transit- and pedestrian-oriented communities has the potential to generate shorter trips to destinations; these trips are expected to result in a higher share of active travel modes, such as biking and walking. Thus, there is a growing need to estimate the impact of land use development scenarios and transportation policies on bicycle and pedestrian demand to predict nonmotorized trip volumes and design the related infrastructure adequately. In this study, on the basis of multiple linear and Poisson regression models were calibrated to estimate nonmotorized travel demand on the basis of geographic information system data, transportation services, and road characteristics. The empirical models developed in this research can be used to assess the impacts of urban design and built environments, such as development of high-density and mixed land use areas, of complete street construction in the middle ring communities of Calgary, and of influenced demand for active travel modes. The developed models also show the benefits of improved pedestrian infrastructure, such as improved network connectivity and increases in the length of pedestrian pathways, as well as the benefits of the integration of transit and walking modes and transit and bicycle modes in encouraging more nonmotorized travel demand. This method is a straightforward statistical analysis for practitioners, and the needed data are relatively easy to access.