Journal
TRANSFUSION
Volume 51, Issue 4, Pages 702-709Publisher
WILEY-BLACKWELL
DOI: 10.1111/j.1537-2995.2010.02882.x
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- Sozialminister Herrn E. Sellering (Secretary of Social Affairs) of Mecklenburg-Pomerania
- President of the Landesarztekammer (Board of Physicians) Mecklenburg-Pomerania Herrn Dr Crusius
- Krankenhausgesellschaft (Hospital Society) Mecklenburg-Pomerania
- AMEOS-Diakonie-Klinikum Ueckermunde
- ASKLEPIOS Klinik Parchim
- ASKLEPIOS Klinik Pasewalk GmbH
- Bodden-Kliniken Ribnitz-Damgarten GmbH
- Dietrich-Bonhoeffer-Klinikum Neubrandenburg
- DRK-Krankenhaus Grevesmuhlen gGmbH
- DRK-Krankenhaus Grimmen GmbH
- DRK-Krankenhaus Mecklenburg-Strelitz gGmbH
- DRK-Krankenhaus Teterow gGmbH
- Universitatsklinikum Greifswald der Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-Universitat Greifswald
- Evangelisches Krankenhaus Bethanien gGmbH in Greifswald
- HANSE-Klinikum Stralsund GmbH
- HELIOS Kliniken Schwerin
- Medigreif Unternehmensgruppe Integratives Gesundheitszentrum Boizenburg
- Tagesklinik fur Kinder- und Jugendpsychiatrie
- Psychosomatik und Psychotherapie in Rostock
- Lungenklinik Amsee in Waren an der Muritz
- Universitatsklinikum Rostock
- Klinikum Karlsburg-Herz-und Diabeteszentrum Mecklenburg-Pomerania
- Klinikum Sudstadt Rostock
- KMG Klinikum Gustrow GmbH
- MediClin Krankenhaus am Crivitzer See in Crivitz
- Krankenhaus Bad Doberan GmbH
- Krankenhaus Malchin GmbH
- MediClin Krankenhaus Plau am See
- Kreiskrankenhaus Demmin
- Kreiskrankenhaus Hagenow
- Kreiskrankenhaus Wolgast gGmbH
- MediClin Muritz Klinikum in Waren an der Muritz
- Neurologisches Rehabilitationszentrum Greifswald gGmbH
- Sana-Krankenhaus Rugen GmbH in Bergen
- Evangelisches Krankenhaus Stift Bethlehem gGmbH in Ludwigslust
- HANSE-Klinikum Wismar
- Tagesklinik fur Psychiatrie/Psychotherapie in Rostock
- Warnow-Klinik Butzow gGmbH
- Red Cross Blood Donation Service Mecklenburg-Pomerania Herrn Dr Stangenberg
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BACKGROUND: Data on blood recipients are sparse and unconnected to data on blood donors. The objective was to analyze the impact of the demographic change on future blood demand and supply in a German federal state. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted. For all in-hospital transfused red blood cells (RBCs; n = 95,477), in the German federal state Mecklenburg-Pomerania in 2005, characteristics of the patient and the blood donor (118,406 blood donations) were obtained. Population data were used to predict blood demand and supply until 2020. RESULTS: By 2020 the population increase of those aged 65 years or more (+26.4%) in Mecklenburg-Pomerania will be paralleled by a decrease of the potential donor population (18-68 years; -16.1%). Assuming stable rates per age group until 2020, the demand for in-hospital blood transfusions will increase by approximately 25% (24,000 RBC units) while blood donations will decrease by approximately 27% (32,000 RBC units). The resulting, predicted shortfall is 47% of demand for in-hospital patients (56,000 RBC units). Validation using historical data (1997-2007) showed that the model predicted the RBC demand with a deviation of only 1.2%. Demographic changes are particularly pronounced in former East Germany, but by 2030 most European countries will face a similar situation. The decrease of younger age groups requires an increase of blood donation rates and interdisciplinary approaches to reduce the need for transfusion to maintain sufficient blood supply. CONCLUSIONS: Demography is a major determinant of future transfusion demand. All efforts should be made by Western societies to systematically obtain data on blood donors and recipients to develop strategies to meet future blood demand.
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