Pre-operative predictors of post-hepatectomy recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma: Can we predict earlier?

Backgrounds and purpose: To determine the predictors for recurrence in patients receiving curative hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: From January 2001 to July 2007, all patients having hepatectomy for first occurrence HCC with curative intent were identified from a prospectively collected database. Prognostic factors for recurrence and survival after resection were analyzed. Results: A total of 235 patients were included. With a median follow-up of 50.2 (0.07-125.1) months, the recurrence rate was 57.0%. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 83.9%, 66.0%, and 58.1% respectively. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that multi-focal lesions (HR: 2.93, P < 0.001), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level greater than 100 ng/ml (HR: 1.74, P = 0.002) and history of tumor rupture (HR: 2.84, P = 0.003) were independent risk factors for recurrence of HCC after hepatectomy. Conclusions: Predictors for HCC recurrence can be identified before operation. These important parameters should be considered before and after contemplating curative resection for HCC patients and for risk stratification in future clinical trials for neoadjuvant or post-resection adjuvant therapy. The possible use of neoadjuvant or adjuvant treatment to improve survival should be addressed by further trials. Crown Copyright (c) 2011 Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh (Scottish charity number SC005317) and Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.