4.1 Article

FUZZY RULE-BASED SYSTEM FOR EVALUATION OF UNCERTAINTY TRANSACTION IN CASSAVA CHAIN

Journal

ENGENHARIA AGRICOLA
Volume 35, Issue 2, Pages 350-367

Publisher

SOC BRASIL ENGENHARIA AGRICOLA
DOI: 10.1590/1809-4430-Eng.Agric.v35n2p350-367/2015

Keywords

fuzzy system; transactions; cassava; uncertainty

Funding

  1. CNPq - National Council for Scientific and Technological Development for research project [Processes 400601/2010-9/Call MCT/CNPq/MEC/CAPES, 480985/2008-1/Call Universal]

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A fuzzy ruled-based system was developed in this study and resulted in an index indicating the level of uncertainty related to commercial transactions between cassava growers and their dealers. The fuzzy system was developed based on Transaction Cost Economics approach. The fuzzy system was developed from input variables regarding information sharing between grower and dealer on Demand/purchase Forecasting, Production Forecasting and Production Innovation. The output variable is the level of uncertainty regarding the transaction between seller and buyer agent, which may serve as a system for detecting inefficiencies. Evidences from 27 cassava growers registered in the Regional Development Offices of Tupa and Assis, Sao Paulo, Brazil, and 48 of their dealers supported the development of the system. The mathematical model indicated that 55% of the growers present a Very High level of uncertainty, 33% present Medium or High. The others present Low or Very Low level of uncertainty. From the model, simulations of external interferences can be implemented in order to improve the degree of uncertainty and, thus, lower transaction costs.

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