Article
Engineering, Geological
Zhaoxia Xu, Xiaoping Zhou, Qihu Qian
Summary: A method based on FMNT was proposed to calculate failure probabilities of seismic slopes, and a CBSM was introduced to establish negative correlation among shear strength parameters. The differences in reliability analysis of seismic slopes between CBSM and FMNT were investigated through two study cases.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOMECHANICS
(2021)
Article
Chemistry, Multidisciplinary
Daniel Herrera, Gerardo Varela, Dante Tolentino
Summary: This study proposes an approach to estimate both the reliability index and the probability of failure through closed-form expressions, taking into account the uncertainties of concrete compressive strength, steel yield, section geometry, and seismic loadings. The results show that there is a difference between the closed-form expression and numerical integration, demonstrating the significance of considering epistemic uncertainties in the estimation of reliability indicators.
APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Jiayi Wen, Xiaoxuan Li, Yuxiang Zhu
Summary: Traditional seismic evaluations may underestimate the actual risk of high-voltage switchgear equipment. By introducing a novel framework that considers functional failure and utilizing limited samples, the accuracy of evaluations can be improved. The study found that blade deformation capacity is the primary constraint for reliability.
EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING & STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Shuling Hu, Songye Zhu, M. Shahria Alam, Wei Wang
Summary: This paper presents a design method based on peak and residual displacements to control the inter-story drift responses of steel moment-resisting frames (SMRFs) by installing self-centering braces. Machine learning prediction models were developed to estimate the inelastic and residual displacement ratios. Static and dynamic analyses were conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed design method. The results indicate that the retrofitted SMRFs can achieve the design targets and be fully recoverable after maximum considered earthquakes.
ENGINEERING STRUCTURES
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Saeed Amiri, Alireza Garakaninezhad, Eden Bojorquez
Summary: Residual displacement is effectively used as a measure of structural inelasticity in post-earthquake seismic assessment. A novel index is introduced to predict residual displacement of mainshock-damaged structures against subsequent aftershocks, considering important structural characteristics and seismic parameters. Analytical equations are presented to predict the proposed index for bi-linear single-degree-of-freedom systems, taking into account the effects of positive and negative polarities of aftershocks.
EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND ENGINEERING VIBRATION
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Xiaoxian Liu, Jian Zhong, Banglu Xi, Jingfeng Wang
Summary: The residual displacement of column has a significant effect on the post-earthquake functionality of a bridge. Comparing the seismic performance of different types of columns, it was found that the unbonded prestressed reinforced concrete (UBPRC) column achieves a good balance between vulnerability arising from peak displacement and residual displacement.
JOURNAL OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Babak Amirataee, Majid Montaseri
Summary: A comprehensive evaluation of the frequency distribution analysis of reservoir storage capacity significantly contributes to reducing uncertainty in the design and operation of reservoir systems. This study incorporated copulas to develop joint probabilities of different reservoir system characteristics, such as performance measures and evaporation losses, which are highly correlated with the required reservoir capacity. Results from the extensive Monte Carlo reservoir simulation demonstrated the dependence of the required storage capacity on other reservoir characteristics, and the systematic behavior of joint probabilities for given reliability and vulnerability values.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Bo Wei, Junfeng Jia, Yulei Bai, Xiuli Du, Binli Guo, He Guo
Summary: The residual displacement of the bridge column has a significant impact on evaluating earthquake damage and seismic resilience of bridges. However, it is often overlooked when assessing the functionality and resilience of bridges after earthquakes. This paper proposes an evaluation method for seismic damage of bridges by considering both the maximum drift and residual drift of the bridge column as engineering demand parameters. The results show that considering residual drift greatly affects the probability of collapse damage and the evaluated seismic resilience of bridges. It is found that when residual displacement is not taken into consideration, the seismic resilience of bridges can be overestimated.
ENGINEERING STRUCTURES
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Industrial
Yide Zheng, Yi Zhang
Summary: This study proposes a copula-based survival signature method to analyze the reliability of component-dependent systems. The method consists of constructing the dependence structure and using the copula function to calculate the probability structure analytically. The effectiveness of using Archimedean copula function in fulfilling the exchangeability assumption and the validity of the proposed method in complex systems are demonstrated.
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
(2023)
Article
Energy & Fuels
Moshe Kelner, Zinoviy Landsman, Udi E. Makov
Summary: This study addresses the challenge of climate change in the electricity sector by proposing a novel probability model to examine the relationship between peak demand and temperature. The study selects the most suitable family member using two new fit measures, and finds the Clayton Gamma copula to be the most appropriate.
Article
Engineering, Geological
Laifu Song, Bin Xu, Xianjing Kong, Degao Zou, Xiang Yu, Rui Pang
Summary: The paper establishes a joint distribution model of nonlinear strength parameters using the Copula function for the stability system of rockfill dam slope. An intelligent response surface method is proposed for reliability analysis, demonstrating feasibility and validity. The Copula function accurately describes the correlated, nonnormal distribution characteristics of strength parameters and significantly impacts the reliability of the stability system.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOMECHANICS
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Jinxiang Zhang, Mingjin Zhang, Xulei Jiang, Lianhuo Wu, Jingxi Qin, Yongle Li
Summary: This study investigates the wind field distribution and the impact of different incoming flows on structures at a deep-cut gorge bridge site. By establishing joint probability models and using the PSB-IFORM method, the most unfavorable combination of design wind parameters can be identified. The proposed method effectively addresses the challenges in solving multi-peak joint probability distribution models.
JOURNAL OF WIND ENGINEERING AND INDUSTRIAL AERODYNAMICS
(2022)
Article
Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence
Wei Ji, Jiajia Xie
Summary: This article focuses on residual implications derived from copulas, which are a special type of conjunctors derived from probability theory and statistics. We provide a characterization of these residual implications by level sets, offering a geometrical insight into their properties and applications.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON FUZZY SYSTEMS
(2023)
Article
Economics
Aditya Keskar, Christopher Galik, Jeremiah X. Johnson
Summary: Most regions in the United States experience peak electricity demand during the summer, but some regions have dual peaks in both summer and winter. Deep decarbonization of the energy system may increase the occurrence of dual or winter peaking power systems across the country. This paper provides policy recommendations for planning and addressing the challenges of winter peaking power systems, including analyzing peak demand trends, addressing resource adequacy, and navigating the regulatory framework.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Caroline D. Aquino, Leonardo G. Rodrigues, Jorge M. Branco, Wellison J. S. Gomes
Summary: This study aims to quantify the uncertainty related to the statistical correlation behavior between timber embedment strength and dowel bending moment capacity. Results show that copula functions have a minor impact on the results but can still capture the nuances of joint behavior.
ENGINEERING STRUCTURES
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Environmental
Ario Muhammad, Raffaele De Risi, Flavia De Luca, Nobuhito Mori, Tomohiro Yasuda, Katsuichiro Goda
Summary: Developing an integrated tsunami evacuation approach is crucial for disaster risk reduction in coastal regions. The study compared a simplified evacuation approach with two more rigorous agent-based modeling approaches, revealing that the latter is more effective in capturing the uncertainty of future tsunami risk and saving lives. The results highlight the importance of considering uncertainties and dynamic safe areas in developing tsunami evacuation plans.
STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Katsuichiro Goda, Viviana Novelli, Raffaele De Risi, Panos Kloukinas, Nicola Giordano, John Macdonald, Innocent Kafodya, Ignasio Ngoma, Elia Voyagaki
Summary: The study conducts regional seismic risk analysis for central-southern Malawi focusing on the Bilila-Mtakataka Fault within the East African Rift System, incorporating local information on population exposure and building vulnerability. Results highlight the importance of incorporating local information on seismic hazard and vulnerability for more effective earthquake risk assessments.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Zhiwang Chang, Flavia De Luca, Katsuichiro Goda
Summary: This study develops new equations for predicting the constant-strength inelastic displacement ratio (C-R) by considering nonlinear single-degree-of-freedom systems subjected to near-fault ground motions. A energy-based parameter, the MEA/MEV ratio, is adopted to characterize the properties of pulse-like records, and its effect on the C-R spectra is investigated. A simplified equation for estimating the C-R spectra is developed, and its accuracy is evaluated.
JOURNAL OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Joanna M. Holmgren, Maximilian J. Werner, Katsuichiro Goda, Manuela Villani, Vitor Silva, Patrick Chindandali, Victoria Stevens
Summary: This article introduces a newly compiled ground motion database for the southern East African rift system, which includes waveform records of 882 earthquakes from 1994 to 2022. It provides essential data for ground motion studies in the region.
EARTHQUAKE SPECTRA
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jeremy M. Rimando, Alexander L. Peace, Katsuichiro Goda, Navid Sirous, Philippe Rosset, Luc Chouinard
Summary: Currently, there is a lack of active fault maps and detailed finite-fault source models for the intraplate western Quebec seismic zone (WQSZ) in eastern Canada, hindering accurate seismic hazard assessments in a rapidly growing population area. This study utilizes Coulomb stress analysis to identify potential zones for future ruptures. The research finds that there is an increased potential for failure in faults proximal to the 1935 MW 6.1 Temiscaming, 1944 MW 5.8 Cornwall-Massena, and 2013 MW 4.7 Ladysmith earthquakes. This work provides a physical basis for seismic hazard assessment input parameters in the WQSZ based on numerical stress modeling results.
CANADIAN JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Yao Li, Katsuichiro Goda
Summary: A new risk-based tsunami early warning method using Random Forest (RF) and S-net has been developed to predict the impact of tsunamis on coastal areas. The method utilizes simulated tsunami wave time series at S-net sensors and considers a wide range of possible tsunami waves. Compared to conventional methods, the RF model improves the prediction accuracy of tsunami loss significantly, reducing the mean square error by 90%. It is also less reliant on earthquake information, making it useful for early warning of tsunamis from various sources.
COMPUTERS & GEOSCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Katsuichiro Goda, Keith Orchiston, Jovana Borozan, Mark Novakovic, Emrah Yenier
Summary: Probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analyses are important decision support tools for reducing tsunami risks in coastal communities. A stochastic source modeling approach helps consider uncertainties in earthquake rupture processes, but accurate evaluations of inland tsunami inundation and building damage are computationally expensive. To overcome this, low-resolution tsunami simulations are used for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis, and smaller sets of stochastic rupture models are identified for specific probabilities. These models are used to estimate tsunami building loss through high-resolution tsunami inundation simulations, reducing computational costs for probabilistic tsunami risk analysis. A case study in Tofino, British Columbia, investigates the correlation between modeled tsunami wave amplitudes and building loss, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed solution in estimating tsunami risk using a limited number of high-resolution simulations.
EARTHQUAKE SPECTRA
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Biniam Tekle Teweldebrhan, Katsuichiro Goda, Raffaele De Risi, Solomon Tesfamariam
Summary: This article presents a bi-variate probabilistic seismic fragility assessment of the cross-laminated timber coupled wall (CLT-CW) system. Different design parameters were evaluated, and probabilistic seismic fragility curves were developed to compare the effect of different limit state function combinations. The study contributes to assessing seismic risk and developing seismic-resilient structures.
EARTHQUAKE SPECTRA
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Zhiwang Chang, Haoran Wu, Katsuichiro Goda
Summary: Proper parameterization of near-fault ground motions is crucial in earthquake engineering. This study proposes a progressive iterative approach for the automated parameterization of velocity pulses in near-fault motions. The approach matches a pulse model to the smoothed motion and derives the parameterized pulse by best fitting in both the time and spectral domains. The method avoids convergence to local minimums and achieves a good match between the extracted pulse and the original motion.
EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING & STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Katsuichiro Goda
Summary: Modeling the occurrence of large subduction earthquakes involves significant uncertainty due to the lack of geological data and inaccurate dating techniques. This study proposes a statistical approach based on the Gaussian mixture model, which outperforms previous methods by capturing both long gaps and short-term clustering. The developed model is suitable for probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis and can calculate the long-term probability of future events.
GEOSCIENCE LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Payam Momeni, Katsuichiro Goda, Mohammad Mokhtari, Mohammad Heidarzadeh
Summary: In this paper, the impact of possible rupture of splay faults on tsunami hazards in the eastern Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) is studied. The study uses a framework that considers uncertainties related to rupture location, rupture geometry, seismic moment split ratio, earthquake slip asperity location, and earthquake slip heterogeneity. The results show a significant amplification of tsunami heights due to the presence of splay faults.
COASTAL ENGINEERING JOURNAL
(2023)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Katsuichiro Goda, Karina Martinez Alcala
Summary: Stochastic source modelling is a valuable method for assessing future tsunami hazards in the Haida Gwaii region on Canada's Pacific coast. This method accounts for uncertainties in fault geometry and slip heterogeneity, allowing for a wide range of possible tsunami scenarios. By generating multiple stochastic tsunami models, the study provides insights into the variability of tsunami heights and highlights the need for accurate bathymetry and elevation data to improve simulations. The models developed in this study can be used for future probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis and risk management decisions in the region.
PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Katsuichiro Goda
Summary: This study presents new stochastic source models for analyzing the Cascadia subduction earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest, which can lead to massive tsunamis. By generating stochastic source models and performing tsunami simulations, the regional characteristics of tsunamis and the influence of source models and earthquake slip distribution on tsunami hazards are revealed.
COASTAL ENGINEERING JOURNAL
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yao Li, Katsuichiro Goda
Summary: This study presents robust algorithms for tsunami early warning using synthetic tsunami wave data and multiple linear regression. The calibration of the models using S-net data improves the accuracy of the tsunami warning system. The study provides optimal configuration of OBS stations and waiting time for issuing tsunami warnings.
Review
Environmental Sciences
Nobuhito Mori, Kenji Satake, Daniel Cox, Katsuichiro Goda, Patricio A. Catalan, Tung-Cheng Ho, Fumihiko Imamura, Tori Tomiczek, Patrick Lynett, Takuya Miyashita, Abdul Muhari, Vasily Titov, Rick Wilson
Summary: This review assesses the advancements in tsunami observation and monitoring, with a focus on rapid early warning and long-term hazard assessment. Real-time tsunami wave height data provided by ocean-bottom pressure gauges, combined with numerical and analogue modelling, have enabled accurate tsunami forecasts within minutes of an earthquake. This allows local communities to evacuate promptly and saves lives.
NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Civil
A. R. Ibrahim, D. A. Makhloof
Summary: The unavoidable heterogeneity in the mechanical characteristics of concrete is crucial to consider in the design of high-rise buildings. This study investigates the spatial variability of material properties and proposes a framework to capture the stochastic response and assess the reliability of structural components. The results demonstrate the importance of accounting for material uncertainty in ensuring the safety of high-rise buildings.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Zhiqiang Wan
Summary: This paper emphasizes the importance of global sensitivity analysis for stochastic dynamical systems with multiple uncertain parameters and proposes a global sensitivity index suitable for this purpose. The research findings demonstrate that the proposed approach exhibits high efficiency and accuracy.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Max Ehre, Iason Papaioannou, Daniel Straub
Summary: Reliability sensitivity analysis is a method to measure the influence of uncertain input parameters on the probability of failure in a system. Statistically dependent inputs pose challenges in computing and interpreting sensitivity indices. This study introduces a separation of effects between the probabilistic model and computational model to compute the independent and full contributions of all inputs. By using hierarchically structured isoprobabilistic transformations, the full set of variance-based sensitivity indices can be computed with a single set of failure samples obtained from a rare event estimation method.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Ze Yuan, Quanwang Li, Kefei Li
Summary: This paper proposes a method to determine a measurement plan for durability assessment of concrete structures, by calibrating the models using Bayesian updating and linear fitting in order to achieve the required accuracy. The paper establishes probabilistic time-dependent models for surface chloride concentration and chloride diffusion coefficient, and discusses the key factors affecting the accuracy of the models.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Ziqi Wang
Summary: This study addresses the fundamental limitation of equivalent linearization methods in nonlinear random vibration analysis, proposing a method to construct an estimator that converges on the nonlinear system solution using a limited number of nonlinear system simulations and optimizing the equivalent linear system to approach the nonlinear system solution quickly, especially for rare event probabilities.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Min Li, Srinivasan Arunachalam, Seymour M. J. Spence
Summary: This paper presents a multi-fidelity approach for computing small failure probabilities in engineering systems. By integrating information from different levels of model fidelity, the required number of high-fidelity model runs is reduced while maintaining accuracy in estimating failure probabilities.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Aritra Chatterjee, Trisha Chakravorty, Baidurya Bhattacharya
Summary: This paper presents a methodology to determine the system reliability of commonly used steel moment connections that have been designed according to current element based procedures. A general expression is derived to modify element resistance factors and meet specified system reliability targets.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Yuanqin Tao, Kok-Kwang Phoon, Honglei Sun, Jianye Ching
Summary: This study derives theoretical and approximate variance reduction functions (VRFs) for a potential inclined slip line in a spatially variable soil. The study investigates one-dimensional (1D) VRFs and proposes approximate VRFs for the one-dimensional Whittle-Mate 'rn (WM) model and the one-dimensional cosine Whittle-Mate 'rn (CosWM) model. The paper also derives theoretical scales of fluctuation and VRFs for commonly used two-dimensional autocorrelation models and proposes general approximations for the VRF over an inclined line.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Amir H. Khodabakhsh, Seid H. Pourtakdoust
Summary: The Fokker-Plank-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation is a crucial model for understanding and improving the performance of engineering systems. However, its solution is challenging due to its high dimensionality. This study introduces FPK-DP Net, a physics-informed network that can effectively solve high-dimensional FPK equations and demonstrates its applicability and accuracy through numerical implementations on benchmark problems.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Wouter Jan Klerk, Vera van Bergeijk, Wim Kanning, Rogier Wolfert, Matthijs Kok
Summary: This paper examines the reliability of flood defence systems under shock-based degradation and compares different maintenance concepts. The results show that the current maintenance concept fails to meet the reliability requirements for revetment failure. Additional inspections and targeted interventions can significantly reduce total cost and improve the robustness of flood defence systems.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Xuejing Wang, Xin Ruan, Joan R. Casas, Mingyang Zhang
Summary: This paper proposes a probabilistic Gaussian mixture model for simulating heavy vehicle scenarios on long-span bridges under free-flow conditions. The study utilizes a non-stationary Poisson process to simulate the uneven occurrence of heavy vehicles in different lanes, considering the correlation of gross vehicle weights within close range. The results show that the correlation and stationarity of vehicle distribution location significantly affect the structural responses.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Jianhua Xian, Ziqi Wang
Summary: This study presents an importance sampling formulation based on adaptively relaxing parameters, providing a unified framework for various existing variance reduction techniques and laying the foundation for creating new importance sampling strategies. It proposes two importance sampling strategies for low-dimensional and high-dimensional problems, which are crucial for fragility analysis in performance-based engineering.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Chi Xu, Jun Chen, Jie Li
Summary: This study proposes a new algorithm to determine the probability distributions of the live load duration and compares the results with Monte Carlo simulation. The algorithm allows the exact determination of design live loads based on a predefined exceeding probability, providing guidance for engineering design.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Hongyuan Guo, You Dong, Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga
Summary: This paper presents a general reliability assessment framework for RC structures based on a Mixed Bayesian network, taking into account environmental parameters, chloride transport, and concrete crack inspection. The case study reveals that early detection of large cracks may lead to an overestimation of failure probability by about 500%.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Changle Peng, Cheng Chen, Tong Guo, Weijie Xu
Summary: Reliability Analysis (RA) is critical in structural design and performance evaluation. This study proposes a novel learning function, SEUR, for surrogate model-assisted RA to improve efficiency and accuracy. The SEUR function is demonstrated to be more effective and efficient in dealing with nonlinear problems, small probabilities, and complex limit states.
