3.9 Article

Aerial survey intensity as a determinant of estimates of African elephant population sizes and trends

Journal

SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE RESEARCH
Volume 39, Issue 2, Pages 181-191

Publisher

SOUTHERN AFRICAN WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT ASSOC
DOI: 10.3957/056.039.0205

Keywords

estimates; percentage confidence limit; precision; survey effort; trend detection

Funding

  1. Botswana Department of Wildlife
  2. National Parks and the Zambian Wildlife Authority for approval and Research Permits
  3. International Fund for Animal Welfare and Luawata Conservation Limited

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Population estimates based on strip transect aerial surveys of large herbivores can aid management decisions if estimates are accurate and precise. Because sampling intensities may influence precision, we simulated survey intensities to determine which could yield accurate and precise population estimates and detect population changes for several African elephant (Loxodonta africana) populations. Simulated surveys of hypothetical elephant populations had to cover 5-20% of a study area to yield accurate estimates, but this depended on how density and distribution varied. Precise estimates, however, needed survey intensities greater than 50%. In addition, the detection of typical rates of population change needed greater sampling intensities than those currently used for most elephant surveys. Survey intensity plays an important role in estimating the accuracy and precision of population estimates and the detection of population trends. Population managers should consider existing information on population density, distribution, and survey intensity to design aerial surveys that will yield both accurate and precise estimates.

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