Article
Environmental Sciences
Claire L. Parkinson, Nicolo E. DiGirolamo
Summary: The satellite dataset spanning 42 years from 1979 to 2020 reveals recent losses in sea ice coverage in both the Arctic and Antarctic, with the Arctic experiencing record low sea ice extents while the Antarctic has seen record lows since 2015. The data also shows that globally, every calendar month has recorded a new monthly record low within the past 5 years, indicating a rapid decline in global sea ice coverage.
REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Oceanography
D. G. Babb, R. J. Galley, S. Kirillov, J. C. Landy, S. E. L. Howell, J. C. Stroeve, W. Meier, J. K. Ehn, D. G. Barber
Summary: The loss of multiyear sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has occurred primarily through two stepwise reductions: in 1989 and in 2006-2008. The first reduction was due to high export of multiyear ice, while the second reduction was a result of both high export and melt, as well as limited replenishment of multiyear ice. Although currently stable, reduced retention of older multiyear ice has led to a younger and thinner multiyear ice pack, potentially setting the stage for another reduction.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Lejiang Yu, Shiyuan Zhong, Bo Sun
Summary: The variability of sea ice in the polar regions has been comprehensively analyzed by applying the self-organizing map method. The study reveals that the variability modes of sea ice in the Arctic are inversely related to the overall increase in sea ice in the Antarctic, and vice versa. The dominant patterns of sea ice anomaly show in-phase variability in the Arctic, particularly in the marginal seas, while the Antarctic sea ice variability is characterized by out-of-phase variability between the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas and the rest of the Southern Ocean. The occurrence frequency of these patterns exhibits seasonal and decadal variability, and the latter is closely related to the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Christopher Wyburn-Powell, Alexandra Jahn, Mark R. England
Summary: The study evaluates the historical simulated internal variability of Arctic sea ice in climate models. Determining model realism is crucial for having confidence in the projected sea ice evolution, but so far only mean state and trends have been commonly assessed. The study focuses on interannual variability, which is the dominant time scale for internal variability, and finds that models generally agree well with observations. However, no model is within observational uncertainty for all months and locations, highlighting the importance of choosing the right model for a given task.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Review
Oceanography
David J. Reynolds, Vanessa R. von Biela, Kenneth H. Dunton, David C. Douglas, Bryan A. Black
Summary: The Pacific Arctic region is experiencing rapid climate change, and there are uncertainties regarding the impact on the region's ecology due to a lack of long-term data. This study uses bivalve mollusc growth increment width chronologies to develop a long-term biological data series and examines the hypothesis that benthic production in the region is declining. The results show that the benthic ecosystems are benefiting from warmer conditions and reduced sea ice, alleviating concerns about food limitation for benthic predators in the area. This study also highlights the feasibility of multicentennial biological data for Arctic species.
PROGRESS IN OCEANOGRAPHY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yihan Zhang, Yunqi Kong, Song Yang, Xiaoming Hu
Summary: Under the background of global warming, the Arctic region has experienced faster warming than the Antarctic, known as asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic warming. This study finds that a seasonal energy transfer mechanism (SETM) dominates in both polar warmings. The increase in effective heat capacity of the ocean surface layer due to declining sea ice leads to stronger winter warming in the Arctic. However, the background oceanic circulation in the Southern Ocean suppresses SETM, resulting in surface cooling in the Antarctic.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Walter N. Meier, J. Scott Stewart, Ann Windnagel, Florence M. Fetterer
Summary: This study compares three passive microwave-based sea ice products, showing good consistency between them with strong negative trends in the Arctic and small positive trends in the Antarctic.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Xiaoyu Sun, Tingting Lv, Qizhen Sun, Zhuoming Ding, Hui Shen, Yi Gao, Yawen He, Min Fu, Chunhua Li
Summary: The satellite-derived sea ice extent in the Arctic and Antarctic over the past 44 years (1979-2022) reveals the details and new trends in polar sea ice coverage changes. The reduction of Arctic sea ice extent has accelerated since 2004, and the Arctic Ocean may experience an ice-free period around 2060. The Antarctic sea ice extent has shifted from slow growth to rapid decrease since 2014, reaching a historical minimum in 2022. The patterns of sea ice extent change differ slightly between the Arctic and Antarctic.
Article
Oceanography
Benjamin A. Lange, Christian Haas, Alfonso Mucci, Justin F. Beckers, J. Alec Casey, Steve Duerksen, Mats A. Granskog, Ido Hatam, Andrea Niemi, Anke Reppchen, Christine Michel
Summary: This study analyzed ice cores from the Lincoln Sea and found that multi-year ice has a higher snow contribution compared to first-year ice, due to the accumulation of more snowmelt water over multiple seasons. Additionally, high snow contributions were observed on the surface of older first-year ice cores, likely due to flooding events and snow-ice formation.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
P. A. Reid, R. A. Massom
Summary: Loss of protective sea-ice buffer in Antarctica has led to increased exposure of the coastal environment to open ocean and waves, which has significant effects on ice-shelf stability, coastal erosion, ice-ocean-atmosphere interactions, and shallow benthic ecosystems. Researchers have introduced a climate and environmental metric called Coastal Exposure Length, which measures the daily changes and variability in the length and occurrence of unprotected coastline in Antarctica. The study found that around 50% of Antarctica's 17,850-km coastline had no sea ice offshore each summer, with variations in exposure levels across regions and seasons. From 1979 to 2020, the annual maximum length of coastal exposure decreased by approximately 30 km per year.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Doroteaciro Iovino, Julia Selivanova, Simona Masina, Andrea Cipollone
Summary: This study presents the temporal and spatial variability of sea ice area in the ensemble of global ocean reanalyses produced by the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) for the period 1993-2019. The results show that the reanalysis ensemble can provide consistent estimates of recent changes in the Antarctic sea ice area, with good agreement with satellite estimates and proper representation of seasonal and interannual variability.
FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Robert Newton, Stephanie Pfirman, L. Bruno Tremblay, Patricia DeRepentigny
Summary: The study shows that global warming has a significant impact on the sources, pathways, and ages of ice entering the Last Ice Area (LIA). The primary ice source shifts from the Russian continental shelves to the central Arctic, but as temperatures rise, sea ice will continue to decline, affecting ecosystems and material transport.
Article
Oceanography
A. S. Criscitiello, T. Geldsetzer, R. H. Rhodes, M. Arienzo, J. McConnell, N. Chellman, M. B. Osman, J. J. Yackel, S. Marshall
Summary: Sea ice plays a critical role in the Earth's climate system by influencing ocean heat uptake, reflecting solar radiation, and contributing to dense water formation. This study compared ice core proxy records with satellite observations, finding distinct marine aerosol sources for two core sites, reflecting different moisture source regions and transport pathways.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
(2021)
Review
Geochemistry & Geophysics
A. D. Fraser, P. Wongpan, P. J. Langhorne, A. R. Klekociuk, K. Kusahara, D. Lannuzel, R. A. Massom, K. M. Meiners, K. M. Swadling, D. P. Atwater, G. M. Brett, M. Corkill, L. A. Dalman, S. Fiddes, A. Granata, L. Guglielmo, P. Heil, G. H. Leonard, A. R. Mahoney, A. McMinn, P. van der Merwe, C. K. Weldrick, B. Wienecke
Summary: Antarctic landfast sea ice, also known as fast ice, is stationary sea ice that is attached to the coast, grounded icebergs, ice shelves, or other protrusions on the continental shelf. Despite its limited extent, fast ice plays a crucial role in various physical, biological, and biogeochemical processes, with both local and far-reaching consequences for the Earth system.
REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jake Aylmer, David Ferreira, Daniel Feltham
Summary: Understanding the impact of ocean heat transport on sea ice extent can help reduce uncertainties in long-term climate projections. In this study, researchers found that the mechanisms of ocean heat transport's impact on sea ice are different in the northern and southern hemispheres. In the northern hemisphere, increased ocean heat transport leads to increased ocean heat convergence along the Atlantic sea ice edge and a reduction in pan-Arctic sea ice thickness. In the southern hemisphere, increased ocean heat transport results in basal melt and sea ice loss.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Nicola Scafetta
Summary: The study suggests that certain regions may have temperature biases that affect global temperature data, especially in Asia, North America, Europe, and parts of South America and Africa. Urbanization may also play a role in these discrepancies.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Nicola Scafetta, Adriano Mazzarella
Summary: The study found a significant correlation between volcanic tremors at the Phlegraean Fields and rainfall events, especially during years of low bradyseism. Heavy rainfall and continuous precipitation were observed to trigger seismic swarms with magnitudes up to M = 3 over periods of a few days to 1 or 2 weeks.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Nicola Scafetta
Summary: This study models the natural variability of global surface temperature using harmonic sets, highlighting the impact of millennial oscillations on climate change. It predicts future temperature trends and confirms a low equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling around 1.5 degrees C.
Article
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Michael J. Bank, Nicola Scafetta
Summary: By using the 2/3rd power of the ratios of the semi-major axis lengths of neighboring planets, we derive a mirror-like relationship among the distances of the planets in the Solar System, which corresponds to musical consonances. This suggests that the orbits of the planets in our Solar System are gravitationally optimized and coordinated.
FRONTIERS IN ASTRONOMY AND SPACE SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Nicola Scafetta
Summary: The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of the CMIP6 global circulation models (GCMs) varies widely, with high and medium ECS models overestimating global surface warming. Low ECS models show better agreement with observed data, but still need improvement. Overall, this study highlights the importance of considering ECS in climate prediction.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Review
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Nicola Scafetta, Antonio Bianchini
Summary: This article investigates the relationship between planetary motions and solar activity cycles, revealing a clear correlation and discussing possible mechanisms to explain this correlation.
FRONTIERS IN ASTRONOMY AND SPACE SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Nicola Scafetta
Summary: The CMIP6 global circulation models predict a wide range of equilibrium climate sensitivity values. To narrow this range, the accuracy and precision of 38 GCMs in hindcasting global surface warming from 1980 to 2021 are tested. The results suggest that the actual ECS may be relatively low, indicating that projected global climate warming over the next few decades may be moderate and not particularly alarming.
Editorial Material
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Nicola Scafetta
Summary: Nataf's recent study claims that the solar dynamo being synchronized by planetary tidal forces is not supported by evidence. However, the model he used only considered the orbits of Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter as circular and thus failed to produce tides compatible with the Schwabe 11-year solar cycle. In contrast, a correct modeling and interpretation of the planetary tidal function, accounting for all planets and their true orbits, fits well with the spectral requirements of the solar cycle, as demonstrated in previous scholarly research and a recent review by Scafetta and Bianchini.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Nicola Scafetta
Summary: Global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 are used to simulate future temperatures and assess the risks of climate change. However, the models' climate response and sensitivity vary greatly, leading to uncertainties in the climatic impact of increased CO2 levels. Some GCMs have been found to overestimate warming, raising doubts about their reliability for policy-making. This study ranks 41 CMIP6 GCMs based on their ability to hindcast past warming and identifies a sub-ensemble of 17 models with better performance. The results suggest moderate global warming and imply that adaptation programs may sufficiently address negative effects of future climate change.
Review
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Nicola Scafetta, Antonio Bianchini
Summary: The complex dynamics of solar activity, including the well-known 11-year Schwabe sunspot cycle, are characterized by multiple oscillations on different timescales. These solar oscillations not only reflect climate oscillations on Earth but also offer explanations and predictions for climate changes. It is crucial to investigate the physical origins of solar oscillations, which might be either exclusively controlled by internal solar dynamo mechanisms or partially synchronized with planetary frequencies. Recent evidence supports the latter concept. This article provides an overview of empirical facts supporting the planetary hypothesis of solar and climate variability and emphasizes its significance for climate research. It demonstrates that the frequencies generated by the complex interactions among planets coincide with major solar activity and climate cycles, ranging from monthly to multimillennial timescales, including the well-known 11-year Schwabe solar cycle. Theoretical and empirical support for the planetary hypothesis of solar and climate variability is presented persuasively.
Editorial Material
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Nicola Scafetta
Summary: SJK's critique of Scafetta is flawed as they overestimated the error in ERA-T2m 2011-2021 mean and confused natural variability with random noise. SJK's allegations were partially addressed in subsequent studies that confirmed Scafetta's conclusions.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Willie Soon, Ronan Connolly, Michael Connolly, Syun-Ichi Akasofu, Sallie Baliunas, Johan Berglund, Antonio Bianchini, William M. Briggs, C. J. Butler, Rodolfo Gustavo Cionco, Marcel Crok, Ana G. Elias, Valery M. Fedorov, Francois Gervais, Hermann Harde, Gregory W. Henry, Douglas V. Hoyt, Ole Humlum, David R. Legates, Anthony R. Lupo, Shigenori Maruyama, Patrick Moore, Maxim Ogurtsov, Coilin Ohaiseadha, Marcos J. Oliveira, Seok-Soon Park, Shican Qiu, Gerre Quinn, Nicola Scafetta, Jan-Erik Solheim, Jim Steele, Laszlo Szarka, Hiroshi L. Tanaka, Mitchell K. Taylor, Fritz Vahrenholt, Victor M. Velasco Herrera, Weijia Zhang
Summary: A statistical analysis of Northern Hemisphere land surface temperatures from 1850 to 2018 was conducted to determine the main drivers of observed warming. The analysis found that the choice of temperature estimate and solar forcing dataset led to different conclusions about the primary drivers of warming. The study also highlighted the challenges of urbanization bias and uncertainty in solar radiation time series for detecting and attributing global warming.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Nicola Scafetta
Summary: The role of the Sun in climate change is debated, with some studies suggesting significant impact and others suggesting minimal impact. The IPCC supports the view that anthropogenic emissions are responsible for nearly 100% of observed surface warming. However, their conclusions are based on computer simulations and do not consider other solar processes. In this paper, three balanced multi-proxy models are proposed to assess the impact of total solar activity on climate change.
GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Nicola Scafetta
Summary: The study tests the performance of 38 CMIP6 models in reproducing observed climate changes over the past 40 years, finding that most models overestimate warming and models with low ECS values perform better, suggesting that they should be preferred for climate change scenario forecasts.
