Modelling the epidemiological impact of scaling up HIV testing and antiretroviral treatment in China

Background: The HIV epidemic in China has been increasing. In response, a 5-year action plan in China has prioritised the scale-up of HIV testing and treatment. Methods: We use a mathematical model to reproduce HIV epidemic trends in China and to forecast epidemic trends according to current conditions or increases in the rate of HIV testing or roll-out of antiretroviral therapy. Results: We show that the epidemic in China could be expected to experience a 2.5-fold expansion over the next 5 years such that similar to 1.8 million people will be infected with HIV in China by 2015. However, increasing testing and treatment rates can have substantial epidemiological benefits. For example, a four-fold increase in testing rates may avert more than 42 000 HIV infections and 11 000 deaths over the next 5years. A 10-fold increase in the treatment rate could decrease the number of HIV-related deaths by 58% and the number of new infections by one-quarter by 2015. Conclusions: Increasing HIV testing and treatment are important public health strategies for prevention.