The effect of an ageing and less fit population on the ability of people to egress buildings

The functional capability of building occupants to egress from buildings is likely to change as populations age and become less fit. A review of the current health literature suggests obesity can be used to determine the likely reduction in walking speed and also as a marker for other egress related factors such as the risk of falls. This paper examines the possible effects of gender, age and obesity and uses a Monte Carlo network evacuation model to examine whether these changes will significantly increase the total evacuation time from an exemplar high-rise building. Modelling results suggest that total evacuation times may increase by up to 20% when comparing historical data from Canada in 1971 with a future New Zealand scenario for 2031. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.