Journal
RISK ANALYSIS
Volume 31, Issue 8, Pages 1243-1259Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01596.x
Keywords
Chlorine release; consequence analysis; emergency response; terrorist attack
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Funding
- John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
- U.S. Department of Homeland Security through the National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) [2007-ST-061-000001]
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We develop and apply an integrated modeling system to estimate fatalities from intentional release of 17 tons of chlorine from a tank truck in a generic urban area. A public response model specifies locations and actions of the populace. A chemical source term model predicts initial characteristics of the chlorine vapor and aerosol cloud. An atmospheric dispersion model predicts cloud spreading and movement. A building air exchange model simulates movement of chlorine from outdoors into buildings at each location. A dose-response model translates chlorine exposures into predicted fatalities. Important parameters outside defender control include wind speed, atmospheric stability class, amount of chlorine released, and dose-response model parameters. Without fast and effective defense response, with 2.5 m/sec wind and stability class F, we estimate approximately 4,000 (half within similar to 10 minutes) to 30,000 fatalities (half within similar to 20 minutes), depending on dose-response model. Although we assume 7% of the population was outdoors, they represent 60-90% of fatalities. Changing weather conditions result in approximately 50-90% lower total fatalities. Measures such as sheltering in place, evacuation, and use of security barriers and cryogenic storage can reduce fatalities, sometimes by 50% or more, depending on response speed and other factors.
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