4.7 Article

Bayesian updating of reliability of civil infrastructure facilities based on condition-state data and fault-tree model

Journal

RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
Volume 94, Issue 12, Pages 1962-1974

Publisher

ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2009.07.002

Keywords

Reliability; Civil infrastructure; Life-cycle analysis; Bayesian update; Inspection

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This paper considers a difficult but practical circumstance of civil infrastructure management-deterioration/failure data of the infrastructure system are absent while only condition-state data of its components are available. The goal is to develop a framework for estimating time-varying reliabilities of civil infrastructure facilities under such a circumstance. A novel method of analyzing time-varying condition-state data that only reports operational/non-operational status of the components is proposed to update the reliabilities of civil infrastructure facilities. The proposed method assumes that the degradation arrivals can be modeled as a Poisson process with unknown time-varying arrival rate and damage impact and that the target system can be represented as a fault-tree model. To accommodate large uncertainties, a Bayesian algorithm is proposed, and the reliability of the infrastructure system can be quickly updated based on the condition-state data. Use of the new method is demonstrated with a real-world example of hydraulic spillway gate system. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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