Variability of available climate resources and disaster risks for different maturity types of spring maize in Northeast China

Changing crop variety with different maturity types is one of the most effective ways for agricultural production to adapt to climate change. However, variability of climate resources and disaster risks under varying climate conditions makes selection of the proper variety for a certain region more difficult. Based on climate data from 1951 to 2010 and crop data from 1981 to 2007, the impact of climate change on maturity-type shifts of maize variety, the variability of available climate resources including heat, precipitation, and sunshine duration, and agro-meteorological disaster risks in Northeast China (NEC) were analysed. Larger middle-and late-maturity-type cropping areas were found during the second period (1981-2010) than during the first period (1951-1980). The area planted with early-maturity maize tended to decrease in the north-western portion of NEC. In sensitive cropping areas where the maturity types of spring maize shifted, growing degree days increased by 2.8-11.5 %, and the northern portion showed higher increasing amplitude than the southern portion. In addition, both accumulated precipitation and sunshine duration during the maize-growing season showed a significant increasing trend in the northern portion, although a significant decreasing trend was found in the southern portion of NEC. In conclusion, the maturity-type shift in spring maize caused more exposure to chilling damage and water deficiency in the sensitive cropping areas of NEC. The importance of taking full account of disaster risks was demonstrated when changing maturity types of spring maize to achieve higher production.