Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts

The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction

(2013) Ben P. Kirtman et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models*

(2013) Emma B. Suckling et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions

(2010) Andrea Alessandri et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Evaluation of Probabilistic Quality and Value of the ENSEMBLES Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts: Comparison with DEMETER

(2010) Andrea Alessandri et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency

(2010) Doug M. Smith et al.   Nature Geoscience

ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions—Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs

(2009) A. Weisheimer et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004)

(2008) Bin Wang et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with weather roulette

(2008) Renate Hagedorn et al.   METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

The Benefits of Multianalysis and Poor Man’s Ensembles

(2008) Neill E. Bowler et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts?

(2008) A. P. Weigel et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions

(2008) JOCHEN BRCKER et al.   TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY