Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jiayu Zhang, Ping Huang, Fei Liu, Shijie Zhou
Summary: This study investigates the spatial pattern of amplitude changes in tropical intraseasonal and interannual variability under global warming, focusing on precipitation and circulation. The moisture budget and thermodynamic energy equations are found to be simultaneously tenable, with the vertical gradient of mean-state moist static energy being a key factor in determining the spatial pattern of circulation changes. Vertical gradients of moisture and dry static energy are modified by global warming, influencing the moisture and thermodynamic energy balances and ultimately the spatial pattern of precipitation and circulation changes.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Lihong Zhou, Zhenzhong Zeng, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Yi Liu, Jie Wu, Dashan Wang, Dan Li, Alan D. Ziegler, Li Dong
Summary: The study found that the seasonal wind speed range globally has declined by 10% since 1980, with significant decreases in Europe, South America, Australia, and Asia. However, North America saw an increase in the wind speed range. The findings are important for understanding the mechanisms behind wind speed variations and their implications for wind power generation.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Fadhlil R. Muhammad, Sandro W. Lubis, Sonni Setiawan
Summary: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) significantly influences the frequency of extreme precipitation events in Indonesia during the rainy season, with varying impacts across regions. The probability of extreme precipitation events is attributed to changes in horizontal moisture flux convergence induced by MJO, providing predictability for daily extreme precipitation in Indonesia.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Bin Wang, Tianyi Wang
Summary: An analysis of the changes in the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagation across the 1999 climate shift reveals that standing oscillation (SO) events have doubled while fast eastward-propagating events have decreased. Additionally, the zonal extents of the MJO propagation have shifted westward. These changes are attributed to the La Nifia-like mean-state shift associated with the 1999 climate shift, which has increased the likelihood of more SO but fewer fast events and promoted the slow-propagating events in the Indian Ocean. The future change of the MJO propagation will depend on the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature pattern, particularly the warming pattern resembling El Nifio or La Nifia.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Wenting Hu, Anmin Duan, Bian He, Sai Hao
Summary: This study investigates the effects of the Tibetan and Iranian Plateaus on the northward propagation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO). The study finds that the Tibetan Plateau has a significant impact on the northward propagation of the BSISO through its influence on vertical wind shear and moisture gradient, while the Iranian Plateau has a relatively limited effect.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Lei Zhou, Siyu Wang, Mingyi Du, Qiang Chen, Congcong He, Jun Zhang, Yinuo Zhu, Yiting Gong
Summary: This study analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics and variability of the impact of ENSO and MJO on drought in China's eco-geographical regions. The results showed a strong correlation between drought and ENSO and MJO, with varying spatial correlation coefficients and responses to extreme events in different regions. The influence of ENSO and MJO on agricultural drought was found to be higher than on meteorological drought, with significant time lag in response to ENSO events.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Peng Li, Qi Li
Summary: This study investigated the intraseasonal and synoptic climate variability of surface solar radiation over the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) region using regional climate modelling. The results showed that the model performed well in simulating SSR patterns, providing valuable insights for SSR evaluation and prediction.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Riccardo Silini, Marcelo Barreiro, Cristina Masoller
Summary: The study shows that artificial neural networks (ANNs) can predict the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) effectively, with a prediction skill of up to 60 days in some cases. However, the amplitude of MJO is underestimated in the predictions.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Kevin Schwarzwald, Andrew Poppick, Maria Rugenstein, Jonah Bloch-Johnson, Jiali Wang, David McInerney, Elisabeth J. Moyer
Summary: Changes in precipitation variability may increase more steeply than its mean in future climate projections, leading to concerns about societal impacts. At local scales, changes in precipitation distributions are complex, while at aggregated scales they become simpler. Precipitation variability changes are especially concerning in subtropical regions.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yue Li, Jiye Wu, Jing-Jia Luo, Young Min Yang
Summary: This study evaluates the capability of CMIP6 models in simulating MJO eastward propagation in comparison with their CMIP5 counterparts. The simulated propagation of the MJO in CMIP6 models shows an overall improvement in realistic speed and longer distance, which displays a robust linear regression relationship against the above-mentioned dynamic and thermodynamic structures.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Hien X. X. Bui, Yi-Xian Li, Eric D. D. Maloney, Ji-Eun Kim, Sun-Seon Lee, Jia-Yuh Yu
Summary: The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has significant impacts on weather and climate phenomena. This study investigates the timing of the emergence of MJO change signals from natural variability under human-induced global climate change. Using simulations of the Community Earth System Model, it is found that MJO precipitation amplitude increases earlier than MJO wind amplitude. The findings provide valuable information for predicting MJO variability and associated extreme events.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Lin Wang, Chuang Zheng, Yuyun Liu
Summary: The East Asian winter monsoon in 2018 was characterized by below-normal surface air temperatures in central Siberia and eastern China, as well as three short-lived cold waves shaping the overall winter temperature pattern. While the atmospheric circulation anomalies during the cold waves did not align well with the overall winter mean fields, taking into account the role of these cold waves provided a better interpretation of the temperature pattern. Future studies should comprehensively examine the impacts of intraseasonal variability on the East Asian winter monsoon's climatic behavior to gain a more complete understanding of the issue.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Qiao Liu, Tim Li, Weican Zhou
Summary: The research reveals that climatological annual mean, climatological annual variation, and flows at different time scales all impact meridional moisture transport, with synoptic and intraseasonal motions playing crucial roles in middle latitude regions. Meanwhile, MJO and ENSO could strongly affect regional moisture transport through interaction with mean moisture and modulation to higher-frequency modes.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Stephanie S. Rushley, Daehyun Kang, Daehyun Kim, Soon-il An, Teng Wang
Summary: This study explores the factors that control the maximum in MJO precipitation variance in the Southern Hemisphere during boreal winter. By altering the eccentricity and precession of Earth's orbit, the researchers find that changes in sea surface temperature and Hadley circulation strengthen the MJO's amplitude. The mean-state precipitation is identified as a critical factor in the maintenance mechanism of the MJO.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yicong Xia, Suxiang Yao, Tianle Sun, Ziyi Guo
Summary: Based on the analysis of observation and reanalysis data, this study identifies and analyzes the contributions of different time scales to persistent heavy rainfall events (PHREs) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (MLYR). The results reveal that prolonged PHREs are dominated by quasi-biweekly precipitation, while normal PHREs depend on synoptic-scale components.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Katelyn Zigner, Leila M. V. Carvalho, Charles Jones, Gert-Jan Duine
Summary: This study analyzed diurnal-to-seasonal wind cycles and extremes in Santa Barbara County, Southern California, and found that there are variations in wind speed cycles and percentiles among different stations. Strong winds recorded at buoys were significantly correlated with land stations, but no temporal lags were found between mountain stations and buoys. Fire weather conditions were most frequent at mountain stations in certain areas, with differences in temperature and dew point distributions during extreme winds between east and west mountain stations.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Deanna Nash, Leila M. Carvalho, Charles Jones, Qinghua Ding
Summary: This study characterizes different types of atmospheric rivers reaching High Mountain Asia and identifies three subtypes with distinct synoptic characteristics during winter and spring months. The findings reveal the importance of these ARs in contributing to winter and spring precipitation in the region.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ye Mu, Charles Jones
Summary: This study analyzes spatiotemporal trends in rainfall and its relationship with deforestation age in the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA) between 1981 and 2020. The results show coherent relationships between negative dry-season rainfall trends and older deforested areas. These findings suggest significant changes in the hydroclimate of the BLA and increased vulnerability to future land cover change.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Wendell M. B. Fialho, Leila M. V. Carvalho, Manoel A. Gan, Sandro F. Veiga
Summary: The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) is a crucial component of the South American Monsoon System, regulating precipitation for millions of people in South America. This study investigates the mechanisms behind persistent SACZ events, which often result in floods and landslides. The researchers find that these events are preceded by a semi-stationary midlatitude Rossby wave train and cyclonic anomalies over the western South Atlantic, which strengthen the low-level westerlies and enhance moisture transport over land, causing the SACZ to intensify and remain active for long periods.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Ye Mu, Trent W. Biggs, Charles Jones
Summary: Water distribution in the Brazilian Amazon during the dry season and its impact on agriculture has not been well studied. This research examines the moisture sources for dry season rainfall in the state of Rondonia, Brazil, and identifies the influence of synoptic circulation patterns. Ocean evaporation contributes to the majority of dry season precipitation, but during drought years, changes in synoptic circulation reduce the moisture transport into Rondonia, affecting the water supply for agriculture.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Charles Jones, Ye Mu, Leila M. V. Carvalho, Qinghua Ding
Summary: This study investigates the variability of northerly low-level jets (LLJ) along the eastern Andes in South America. Four distinct types of LLJ are identified, with specific evolutions and forcings from Rossby wave trains and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The occurrence of each LLJ type varies in El Nino and La Nina years. The persistence of precipitation is directly related to the persistence of LLJ. The findings highlight the importance of LLJ in modulating precipitation patterns in South America.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Callum F. Thompson, Charles Jones, Leila Carvalho, Anna T. Trugman, Donald D. Lucas, Daisuke Seto, Kevin Varga
Summary: This article examines the changing trends of surface winds in California during autumn. The study finds a significant increase in easterly winds at night on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada. The findings suggest that this trend may be driven by elevated warming gradients between California and the interior continent.
Article
Ecology
Katelyn Zigner, Leila M. Carvalho, Charles Jones, John Benoit, Gert-Jan Duine, Dar Roberts, Francis Fujioka, Max Moritz, Nic Elmquist, Rob Hazard
Summary: The main objective of this study is to provide a spatial analysis of regions at high risk of fast wildfire spread in coastal Santa Barbara, particularly in the first two hours. Multiple wildfire simulations were conducted using three ignition modeling methods and three wind scenarios. The results showed that the simulated wildfires were more likely to occur near major-exit highways, but did not spread far from the ignition locations.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Corrie Monteverde, Fernando De Sales, Charles Jones
Summary: This study evaluates the performance of different models in simulating precipitation patterns in the Brazilian Amazon. It finds that the models tend to underestimate rainfall in the northern region and accurately simulate rainfall in the southern region. The models struggle to capture extreme precipitation values but are able to capture the dominant mode of variability. CESM2, MIROC6, MRIESM20, SAMOUNICON, and the ensemble mean perform best in all evaluation metrics.
Article
Ecology
Kevin Varga, Charles Jones, Anna Trugman, Leila M. Carvalho, Neal McLoughlin, Daisuke Seto, Callum Thompson, Kristofer Daum
Summary: Massive wildfires and extreme fire behavior are becoming more frequent in the western United States. Understanding the behavior of megafires in a warming world is crucial. The simulation using Prometheus model showed that high temperatures, low humidity, and southerly winds contribute to extreme fire spread. Aridity and fuel moisture content have the greatest impact on fire growth and heat release.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Jennifer K. Balch, Rebecca T. Barnes, Philip E. Higuera, Christopher I. Roos, Dylan W. Schwilk, E. Natasha Stavros, Tirtha Banerjee, Megan M. Bela, Jacob Bendix, Sandro Bertolino, Solomon Bililign, Kevin D. Bladon, Paulo Brando, Robert E. Breidenthal, Brian Buma, Donna Calhoun, Leila M. V. Carvalho, Megan E. Cattau, Kaelin M. Cawley, Sudeep Chandra, Melissa L. Chipman, Jeanette Cobian-Iniguez, Erin Conlisk, Jonathan D. Coop, Alison Cullen, Kimberley T. Davis, Archana Dayalu, Fernando De Sales, Megan Dolman, Lisa M. Ellsworth, Scott Franklin, Christopher H. Guiterman, Matthew Hamilton, Erin J. Hanan, Winslow D. Hansen, Stijn Hantson, Brian J. Harvey, Andres Holz, Tao Huang, Matthew D. Hurteau, Nayani T. Ilangakoon, Megan Jennings, Charles Jones, Anna Klimaszewski-Patterson, Leda N. Kobziar, John Kominoski, Branko Kosovic, Meg A. Krawchuk, Paul Laris, Jackson Leonard, S. Marcela Loria-Salazar, Melissa Lucash, Hussam Mahmoud, Ellis Margolis, Toby Maxwell, Jessica L. McCarty, David B. McWethy, Rachel S. Meyer, Jessica R. Miesel, W. Keith Moser, R. Chelsea Nagy, Dev Niyogi, Hannah M. Palmer, Adam Pellegrini, Benjamin Poulter, Kevin Robertson, Adrian V. Rocha, Mojtaba Sadegh, Fernanda Santos, Facundo Scordo, Joseph O. Sexton, A. Surjalal Sharma, Alistair M. S. Smith, Amber J. Soja, Christopher Still, Tyson Swetnam, Alexandra D. Syphard, Morgan W. Tingley, Ali Tohidi, Anna T. Trugman, Merritt Turetsky, J. Morgan Varner, Yuhang Wang, Thea Whitman, Stephanie Yelenik, Xuan Zhang
Summary: Fire is a crucial element in ecosystems globally, but altered fire regimes due to global change are causing devastating impacts. Addressing the increasing fire danger requires interdisciplinary and inclusive partnerships, as well as integration of diverse knowledge and data for more predictive and adaptive approaches.
Article
Ecology
Daisuke Seto, Charles Jones, Anna T. Trugman, Kevin Varga, Andrew J. Plantinga, Leila M. Carvalho, Callum Thompson, Jacob Gellman, Kristofer Daum
Summary: This study examines the effectiveness of WUI fuel breaks under strong winds and dry fuel conditions using the 2018 Camp Fire as a case study. It finds that WUI fuel breaks can slow down wildfire spread rates by dispersing the fire front, but the width of the fuel breaks is crucial.
