PRET, the Probability of RETurn: a new probabilistic product based on generalized extreme-value theory

“Jumpiness” of the ECMWF and Met Office EPS Control and Ensemble-Mean Forecasts

(2009) Ervin Zsoter et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts

(2009) Felix Fundel et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part I: Two-Meter Temperatures

(2008) Renate Hagedorn et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Potential use of an ensemble of analyses in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

(2008) Roberto Buizza et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

The new VarEPS-monthly forecasting system: A first step towards seamless prediction

(2008) Frédéric Vitart et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Return level bounds for discrete and continuous random variables

(2008) A. Guillou et al.   TEST

Ensemble forecasting

(2007) M. Leutbecher et al.   JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL PHYSICS