A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part I: Understanding of future change in the large-scale climate system

This article reviews some of the major lines of recent scientific progress relevant to the choice of global climate policy targets, focusing on changes in understanding since publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). Developments are highlighted in the following major climate system components: ice sheets; sea ice; the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; tropical forests; and accelerated carbon release from permafrost and ocean hydrates. The most significant developments in each component are identified by synthesizing input from multiple experts from each field. Overall, while large uncertainties remain in all fields, some substantial progress in understanding is revealed.