Bus travel time reliability analysis: a case study

The travel time reliability of buses has become increasingly important for public transit companies. In this study, a novel approach is proposed to evaluate and analyse the travel time reliability of bus services provided by TransLink in Queensland, Australia. In view of their stochastic features, the two components of travel time - dwell time and driving time - are represented by discrete distributed and normally distributed random variables respectively. Accordingly, the travel time could be described by Gaussian mixture models. Based on the proposed model, impact analysis shows that bus line reliability would increase by around 15% if onboard top-up for 'go cards' (electronic tickets) was not offered by TransLink. It was found that not providing this top-up method would not significantly harm the benefit of go card users, but it would substantially increase the total social benefit thanks to improved bus line reliability.