Sponyloarthritis features forecasting the presence of HLA-B27 or sacroiliitis on magnetic resonance imaging in patients with suspected axial spondyloarthritis: results from a cross-sectional study in the ESPeranza Cohort

Introduction: Chronic back pain (CBP) is frequently the presenting symptom in patients with suspected axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). Presence of sacroiliitis on magnetic-resonance-imaging (MRI) or HLA-B27 adds to diagnostic certainty. However, these costly tests cannot be applied in all patients with CBP. This study aims to investigate which SpA features increase the likelihood of a positive HLA-B27 or positive MRI of the sacroiliac-joints (MRI-SI) in patients with suspected axSpA. Methods: Data from 665 patients with CBP within the ESPeranza Programme were analysed. Diagnostic utility measures (LR+, LR-) for a positive MRI-SI or HLA-B27 were calculated for various definitions of inflammatory back pain (IBP), their separate items and for other SpA features. Results: Pretest probabilityies of a positive result was 41 % for MRI-SI and 40 % for HLA-B27. For a positive MRI-SI result the most useful IBP characteristic was alternating buttock pain (LR + =2.6). Among the IBP-criteria, fulfillment of the 'ASAS criteria' (LR + =2.1) was most contributory. Interestingly, the addition of alternating buttock pain to the Calin/ASAS-IBP criteria (LR + =6.0 and 5.5, respectively) or the addition of awakening at second half of night to the Calin-IBP criteria (LR + =5.5) increased the pre-test probability of MRI-sacroiliitis from 41 % to 79-80 %. Dactylitis (LR + =4.1) and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) (LR + =6.4) increased this probability to 73 % and 81 %, respectively. To forecast HLA-B27 positivity, awakening at the second half of the night, fulfillment of the ASAS-IBP definition and uveitis were the most useful, but only marginally predictive (LR + = 1.3, 1,6 and 2.6, respectively). Conclusions: If patients with suspected axial SpA have either 1) IBP according to Calin/ASAS definition plus alternating buttock pain, or 2) IBP according to Calin definition plus awakening at night, or 3) dactylitis or 4) IBD, the probability of finding a positive MRI-SI increases significantly.