ESTIMATING FUTURE RESIDENTIAL WATER CONSUMPTION IN PHOENIX, ARIZONA BASED ON SIMULATED CHANGES IN CLIMATE

Previous studies have shown that residential water consumption in Phoenix, Arizona is significantly related to changes in climate, although that sensitivity varies substantially from one census tract to another. In this investigation, we determine the empirical relationship between water consumption and variations in temperature and precipitation. We find the sensitivity of water consumption to either climate variable is positively related to the percent of land covered in mesic irrigated landscaping, mean household income, lot size, and percent of single-family residential lots containing swimming pools. We use estimated changes in temperature and precipitation for 50 model-scenario combinations presented by the IPCC, and we determined that mean water consumption should increase by an average of over 3% by similar to 2050, but the climate-induced change in consumption varies considerably across census tracts.