Prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonates: screening by fetal biometry at 19-24 weeks

Objective To investigate the value of fetal biometry at 19-24 weeks' gestation in the prediction of delivery of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonates, in the absence of pre-eclampsia (PE), and examine the potential value of such assessment in deciding whether the third-trimester scan should be at 32 and/or 36 weeks' gestation. Methods This was a screening study in 88 187 singleton pregnancies, including 5003 (5.7%) that delivered SGA neonates with birth weight < 5th percentile (SGA < 5th). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to determine if screening by a combination of maternal characteristics and medical history and Z-scores of fetal head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length (FL) had significant contribution in predicting SGA neonates. A model was developed for selecting the gestational age for third-trimester assessment, at 32 and/or 36 weeks, based on the results of screening at 19-24 weeks. Results Combined screening by maternal factors and fetal biometry at 19-24 weeks, predicted 76%, 58% and 44% of SGA < 5th delivering < 32, 32-36 and >= 37 weeks' gestation, respectively, at a false-positive rate (FPR) of 10%. The detection rate (DR) of SGA < 5th delivering at 32-36 weeks improved from 58% to 82% with screening at 32 weeks rather than at 19-24 weeks. Similarly, the DR of SGA < 5th delivering >= 37 weeks improved from 44% with screening at 19-24 weeks to 61% and 76% with screening at 32 and 36 weeks, respectively. In a hypothetical model, it was estimated that if the desired objective of prenatal screening is to predict about 80% of the cases of SGA < 5th, it would be necessary to select 28% of the population at the 19-24-week assessment to be reassessed at 32 weeks and 41% to be reassessed at 36 weeks; in 59% of pregnancies there would be no need for a third-trimester scan. Conclusion Prenatal prediction of a high proportion of SGA neonates necessitates the undertaking of screening in the third trimester of pregnancy, in addition to assessment in the second trimester, and the timing of such screening, either at 32 and/or 36 weeks, should be contingent on the results of the assessment at 19-24 weeks. Copyright (C) 2015 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.