Journal
PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS
Volume 389, Issue 24, Pages 5801-5807Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2010.08.003
Keywords
Bootstrap; Detrended fluctuation analysis; North Atlantic Oscillation; Power spectrum; Predictability; Resampling
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The long episode of negative values in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index during the winter season 2009-2010 has attracted more attention to its predictability. Previous analyses (Fernandez et al. (2003) [16] and Caldeira et al. (2007) [25]) by this same author group have established that the NAO signal behaves as a slightly red noise and therefore the prediction of the phenomenon must rely upon a deeper understanding of the underlying Physics. In this paper the authors address a predictability study of the NAO index by applying the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to a composite series, completed with a bootstrap spectral analysis. The DFA provides a quantitative measure of predictability by computing several piecewise fits, either linear or higher degree polynomial ones, to a cumulative series of fluctuations associated to the original series. These newer measurements agree with the previous results. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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