Mechanisms and reproductive consequences of breeding dispersal in a specialist predator under temporally varying food conditions

Individual variation in breeding dispersal has extensive ecological and evolutionary consequences, but the factors driving individual dispersal behaviour and their fitness consequences remain poorly understood. Our data on dispersal events of a rodent-specialist predator, the Eurasian kestrel Falco tinnunculus, over 20 years in western Finland offers a unique opportunity to explore the mechanisms underlying breeding dispersal behaviour and its reproductive consequences in a wild bird population. Sex, age, body condition and previous breeding success affected breeding dispersal. Dispersal distances were longer in females than in males as well as longer in yearlings than in older individuals. Body condition was positively correlated to breeding dispersal distances, particularly for females. The lowest dispersal distances were recorded for intermediate brood sizes in the year preceding dispersal. Our results highlight sex- and environment-specific consequences of breeding dispersal on reproductive performance. During increase phases of the three-year vole cycles, males dispersing further had lower reproductive performance after dispersal, whereas in females, long breeding dispersal distances were associated with increased breeding success under all environmental conditions. These results suggest benefits associated to breeding dispersal in females, potentially related to large spatio-temporal variation in main food abundance and intensity of intra-specific competition. Breeding dispersal of males was costly during increasing food abundance, indicating the potential fitness benefits of environmental familiarity in this migratory species. Overall, our results indicate that both individual traits and environmental factors interact to shape breeding dispersal strategies in wide-ranging predator populations under fluctuating food conditions.